China’s exports grow at fastest pace in 15 months, but imports falter

The market is confident that the US and EU tariffs will not have a substantial impact on China’s overseas sales

12 Jul. () –

Chinese exports in June totaled $307.85 billion (283.577 billion euros), a figure that represents an interannual increase of 8.6%, the highest in 15 months and accelerating from the 7.6% growth in May and 1.5% in April, according to data published this Friday by the General Administration of Customs of China.

In contrast, imports from the ‘Asian giant’ in June fell by 2.3% year-on-year to $208.81 billion (192.346 billion euros), after an increase of 1.8% in May, fuelling doubts about the weakness of Chinese demand.

Overall, China’s trade in the sixth month of the year reached 516.66 billion dollars (475.923 billion euros), 3.9% more than in the same month of 2023.

Among its main trading partners, Chinese exports to the European Union in June rose by 4% to $45.748 billion (€42.141 billion), but imports fell by 6.7% to $23.188 billion (€21.360 billion), before tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles came into effect.

In the case of the United States, Chinese exports rose by 6.6% year-on-year in June, to 45.512 billion dollars (41.924 billion euros), while purchases from the world’s leading power fell by 1.7%, to 13.735 billion dollars (12.652 billion euros).

In turn, trade relations between China and Russia showed a 3.5% increase in sales to its northern neighbor, reaching 9.883 billion dollars (9.104 billion euros), while imports from Russia totaled 10.366 billion dollars (9.549 billion euros), 8.1% less.

“After accounting for changes in export prices and seasonality, we estimate that export volumes rose to record levels,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at consultancy Capital Economics, who expects “this strength to continue in the coming months, driven by a further depreciation of the real effective exchange rate.”

In this regard, the expert anticipates that the US and EU tariffs “will not have a significant impact on overall exports in the short term,” since they only target a small portion of Chinese exports and their effect can be mitigated through trade diversions and exchange rate adjustments.

“Overall, we expect exports to remain a tailwind for economic growth in the near term,” he said.