Biden and Maduro seek to tie up “pending issues” before elections in their countries, according to experts

The governments of the United States and Venezuela resumed direct dialogue this week to address “pending issues” of both administrations, given the possibility that there may be changes in the internal political dynamics of each country following the upcoming elections, according to experts.

High-level delegates from the governments of both nations met virtually on Wednesday and agreed to work to “gain trust” and “improve” bilateral relations, according to Venezuelan officials.

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the Venezuelan Parliament, and Héctor Rodríguez, governor of Miranda state and leader of the Chavista movement, said that the meeting also served to help the parties agree to “maintain communication in a respectful and constructive manner.”

The conversation took place a day before the Official start of the presidential election campaign which will take place in Venezuela next Sunday, July 28, where Maduro is seeking re-election against opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, favorite in voting intentionaccording to recent surveys by private firms such as Delphos.

The resumption of talks will be useful to resume the agenda agreed upon at a private meeting between delegates from both countries a year ago in Doha, Qatar, Maduro said.

Following these negotiations, Chavismo and the opposition signed a political agreement in Barbados, while Caracas and Washington exchanged prisoners, including a dozen Americans and Alex Saab, a Colombian businessman accused of corruption, who today presides over the International Center for Productive Investment of the Chavista government.

Geoff Ramsey, an analyst on Latin American policies at the American think tank The Atlantic Council, told the Voice of America that the agenda addressed by the delegates of both governments probably included issues such as guarantees for the electoral process of July 28 and economic sanctions against Venezuela.

“Maduro wants two things: the lifting of sanctions and diplomatic recognition. The question is how much he is willing to risk to get them,” he said.

Ramsey believes that the crucial issues on the table for direct negotiations between the US and Venezuela are those on which there has been no progress, such as the release of political prisoners, the acceptance of deportation flights from US territory, the complete lifting of sanctions and guarantees regarding elections.

“The problem is that July 28 is just around the corner, so unless a new date is set for the elections, it is difficult to imagine electoral conditions improving much,” the analyst adds.

The most important thing Maduro can offer right now is a guarantee that Edmundo González and his party will be able to appear on the ballot on July 28, he says.

Whether Maduro will allow Gonzalez’s candidacy to “go forward intact” until voting day “is an open question,” he said. “At this point, it is hard to imagine Maduro really putting his grip on power at risk, unless he truly believes that he and his party have the votes they need to win.”

The White House, for its part, has “a broader set of interests at play,” according to Ramsey. “The administration is seeking to separate broader geopolitical and energy interests in Venezuela from its efforts to promote democracy,” he warns.

Washington, on the one hand, wants to continue to push for democratic opening, but on the other hand, it also understands that in the long term it “does not suit it to sit back” and watch as Venezuela continues to get closer to Russia and China, the expert points out.

Does Miraflores anticipate Biden’s departure?

Félix Gerardo Arellano, a specialist in international studies at the Central University of Venezuela and a doctor in political science, believes that Chavismo has also accepted a meeting between its delegates and representatives of the White House, not only because of the proximity of the election in his country, but also because of the internal political development of the United States.

One of the interpretations of Wednesday’s meeting is that Miraflores Palace “sees the exit” of President Joe Biden, contemplating scenarios ranging from his possible withdrawal as a Democratic candidate for the November election, to his possible defeat against his Republican rival, former President Donald Trump.

Some members of the Democratic Party have expressed concern about Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate with Trump and have even expressed the possibility of replacing him as a candidate in the coming months, according to reports in the American press.

In this scenario, Chavismo wants to “resolve pending issues” with the Biden administration, such as personal sanctions against officials of the Chavez and Maduro governments, as well as money frozen abroad in which US policies have an influence, Arellano believes.

“There is interest in trying to resolve with Biden, with whom they feel there is dialogue, all this financial accounting that is pending before they change to Biden – if it happens – or when the election comes and neither Biden nor the Democratic Party are in the presidency,” he says.

Another “optimistic” reading of Wednesday’s meeting is that the US has not set aside its “interest, concern and discipline” regarding the restoration of Venezuelan democracy, according to Arellano.

“There is no let-up in interest, pace or concern. He remains attentive, continues to work and has been flexible. In return, he is not receiving much, which is why there must be criticism of the Biden administration,” mainly from Republican leaders, such as Senator Marco Rubio, he explains.

Arellano believes that Washington wants to “send a signal that it is still paying attention” to the Venezuelan electoral process, demanding a transparent and competitive vote. “That seems increasingly difficult,” warns the expert.

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