Venezuela officially kicks off a fast-paced electoral campaign this Thursday for the presidential vote on Sunday, July 28: it will last only 4 weeks and will be marked by the “polarized” trend between the two favorite candidates, according to consulted experts.
The National Electoral Council determined that the nine presidential candidates in Venezuela and their political blocs and supporters will be able to ask for the vote of more than 21 million registered citizens between Thursday 4 and Thursday 25 of this month.
“There are only a few days left,” warns political scientist Jesús Castillo Molleda, director of the firm Polianalítica. However, they could be “decisive” in the result if the strategy of a block or candidate turns out to be “wrong.”
“There are nine candidates in the race, but the process is polarized between the candidates Edmundo González and Nicolás Maduro,” he says in conversation with the Voice of America.
Maduro is seeking re-election after 11 years in power, during which he has been involved in an acute political crisis, in which his opponents accused him of usurping the presidency and appointed an interim leader, the leader of parliament Juan Guaidó, now in exile.
The Venezuelan president appears second in all the polls conducted by private firms, behind González, a diplomat who worked in a low profile for years in the opposition Mesa de la Unidad, now known as the Plataforma Unitaria Democrática.
González has the support of the winner of the opposition primary, María Corina Machado, who could not register as a candidate because she was disqualified by the ruling party, and the voting intention in her favor in those polls exceeds 50%.
At the end of June, the Delphos polling firm revealed that González had a 52% preference for voters, followed by Maduro with 25% of voting intentions, but analysts such as Castillo Molleda highlight the key importance of “organization” on election day.
“You achieve nothing by leading a poll if on election day you cannot have the presence of electoral witnesses, logistics, vote mobilizers, and polling station coordinators at 100% of the polling stations,” he warns, looking ahead to the campaign.
Caracas, a “fleeting” request, doubts
Ricardo Ríos, a political scientist and president of the firm Poder y Estrategia, whose public opinion studies also give the opposition presidential candidate a clear advantage, recalls that the country is entering into a “very fleeting” official campaign, but with at least two months of political leaders like Machado and Maduro touring regions other than Caracas.
It is time to “ask for the vote,” which was not the case before due to legal requirements in Venezuela, he explains. Ads for the candidates will begin to appear, but not with as much impact in traditional media, but with an emphasis on social networks, such as Facebook and Instagram, he predicts.
Another strategic decision expected by Chavismo and the opposition is their emphasis on Caracas, the capital, a “symbolic” city as it is the seat of executive power, he points out.
“The first activity of María Corina Machado’s command is a caravan in Caracas, the closing will be the same. The ruling party as well as the independent sectors. There will be more presence in Caracas” of the candidates, who previously focused on the interior, says Ríos.
The political analyst also expects an increase in public spending, that is, the use of state resources for the campaign in favor of Maduro, including the allocation of monetary bonuses for those who are registered in the official Patria System.
He believes that President Maduro is on the verge of making an important economic announcement, such as an increase in pensions, which pay only 130 bolivars per month (3.5 dollars) to more than 5 million Venezuelans aged 60 and 65.
The opposition’s “concerns” in this campaign will be based on the “possibility of blocking” the opposition candidate by court ruling and the “content” of the direct negotiations between the United States and Chavismo, according to Ríos.
“Surprising” days are coming
Political scientist Piero Trepiccione expects four “surprising” weeks in which there will be “tactical movements” by Chavismo, the opposition and even independent candidates, who may join forces, he anticipates.
The United Socialist Party of Venezuela will intensify its political efforts to “strengthen” its machinery, which is based on a model known as “1×10,” where each member must capture and guarantee a dozen votes for Maduro, it said.
Trepiccione says he expects the government to try to guarantee a high turnout in its ranks during the campaign and “generate uncertainty” in the opposition in order to achieve what he calls “a demobilizing effect” on the electorate critical of Chavismo.
Castillo Molleda, for his part, insists that the campaign will focus on each political bloc demonstrating its “capacity for organization and strength on the streets” during the tours of their respective candidates.
“Whoever believes himself to be the winner could be surprised by his opponent if he fails to develop a sound strategy on election day on July 28,” he notes, recalling that next year there will be another election to renew more than 6,000 elected positions, including mayors, governors, local legislators and deputies to the national parliament.
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