On March 4, just eight days after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and culminating their advance south from Crimea, Vladimir Putin’s troops seized the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Those were the days of wine and roses for Putin, those tense hours in which it seemed that at any moment Zelensky could hand over the country. Zaporizhia, in fact, it was the second nuclear power plant that fell into Russian hands: the first had been, days before, that of Chernobyl, with its reactor disabled and its high uncontrolled radiation.
The protocol that was followed in Zaporizhia was identical to that followed in the north: the army entered the plant, put a gun to the heads of the Ukrainians who worked there and made it clear to them who was boss. Since then, and the thing has been going on for more than five months, things stay the same: The technicians who know the plant do the day-to-day work while the Russian authorities supervise said work and ensure that all the energy generated can be managed from Moscow, specifically, from the offices of Rosatom, the Russian state agency.
The nuclear power plant, attached to the Dnieper River and built next to the city of Energodar, an extension of the complex to house its workers, it ended up becoming a kind of border. While hostilities focused on the east, with the defense of Lugansk in agony, the invaded part of Zaporizhia enjoyed a certain calm. Only the Melitopol partisans seemed to be a problem, and not a serious one either. Now what Ukraine looks determinedthanks in part to its medium-distance missile teams (HIMARS), to recover the lost ground during that infamous first week, the region is once again in the eye of the hurricane.
A man crosses a road near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in the course of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia
“The Nuclear Apocalypse”
Although the local counteroffensive has had Kherson as its main objective, the bombing of the occupied areas of Zaporizhia has also increased as the summer has progressed… until reaching the vicinity of the nuclear power plant itself. Last July, Russian forces converted the area in a military complex, with the deployment of rocket launchers. On August 3, the International Atomic Energy Agency warned that the plant “was completely out of control” and urged an inspection with the corresponding repair of everything that had suffered damage.
The UN, through its Secretary General, the Portuguese Antonio Guterreshas been the most explicit that one remembers about it: first he assured that the world was “to a miscalculation of the nuclear apocalypse” and, days later, he asked both parties to stop using a nuclear power plant as a battlefield. The reaction of both Russia and Ukraine was identical: blame the other for the attacks and ensure that they they had no fault in the military escalation.
Antonio Guterres assured that the world was “a miscalculation of the nuclear apocalypse”
[La ONU, tras el ataque de Rusia a la central de Zaporiyia: “El riesgo de desastre nuclear es real”]
According to Ukraine, the Russians are playing the card of fear with sabotage and bombing of the area in the face of a possible annexation referendum. They want to sell to the world and, above all, to the inhabitants of the Zaporizhia region, that the Ukrainians are willing to do anything, even play with their lives in order to recover territory. The problem with this accusation is that it does not fit very well with that of use the center as a “shield” to place weapons, which makes it not very credible.
Russia, for its part, insists that it is Ukraine the one that bombs the central and that, for this reason, on August 5, the operators had to momentarily stop the abnormal activity of one of the reactors. The truth is it is impossible to simply blame one or the other of what is happening and the most logical thing is to think that there are responsibilities that both share: Russia is probably using the central to protect weapons that it wants to keep safe… and Ukraine, or isolated groups on the southern front, are not being as cautious as they should be with their bombing.
Irony and nuclear weapons
In any case, the scenario painted by Antonio Guterres is still valid: a bad calculation, a misdirected projectile, a slight mistake… and we could be facing a catastrophe like Chernobyl. A catastrophe that, needless to say, harms everyone: Europe, southern Ukraine… but also Russia, which should stop playing games as soon as possible and leave the plant, as the G7 asks (something that, obviously, is not going to to do), or at least withdraw the weapons and convert the area, as the United States suggests, into a neutral territory… while maintaining control of the resulting energy.
A view shows an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) fired at an undisclosed location, in Ukraine.
If there is something that unbalances this war in favor of Russia, it is precisely its nuclear capacity. Russia has been threatening the whole world since February of the destruction that its missiles can cause. It would be a catastrophe for the Kremlin if, after all, there was indeed a nuclear explosion… but if those affected were, first, its troops deployed around the plant; next, the cities that they have been occupying throughout these months and that they intend to annex, and, finally, their own territory. Zaporizhia nuclear power plant it is less than four hundred and fifty kilometers from Rostov to the east and from Sevastopol to the south.
Such a catastrophe would hit Crimea hard and cause thousands of deaths of Russian citizens. All to commit playing cat and mouse without much to gain. Of course, the Ukrainians would assume an equal or higher number of casualties, but let’s just say that the Ukrainians have been counting on the use of some kind of unconventional weapon against them since the beginning of the war. A fear that, in principle, does not affect the Russians.
[La explosión en una base de Crimea destruye 8 aviones rusos, según las imágenes del satélite]
Otherwise, August has been a month of almost static fronts. Although Ukraine has regained initiative thanks to the HIMARS and even Crimea has become a military target (we still don’t know what kind of weapons it uses), the truth is that it hasn’t recovered any territory. Nor has Russia made much progress in Donbas. More than a month ago taking of Lisichansk and we all imagined a storming attack on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk… but so far the furthest the invaders have come is to Soledar and its salt mines.
They are, therefore, fifteen kilometers from Artemivsk following T1302. Now, either replacements arrive or Russia will have a very difficult time overcoming the defenses of the city and the rest of the Ukrainian Donetsk in the short term. The Wagner Group he keeps looking for new mercenaries, but they are not enough. When they are, they will return to the attack.
Add Comment