This Friday, the board of directors of the Bank of the Republic will meet to define the course of its monetary policy and set the interest rate that will govern for the beginning of the third quarter of 2024, which currently stands at 11.75%.
(Read: Dollar adds a new day of losses and is already trading below $ 4,100).
A few days before the Issuer’s board meets, Fedesarrollo presented the results of the Financial Opinion Survey (EOF)which includes market analysts’ projections on the interest rate, GDP, inflation and the behavior of the dollar between July and September (third quarter) and the end of the year.
According to the survey, prepared in June, analysts expect that the intervention rate of the Bank of the Republic will close the year at 8.5%.
(See: Cost of living and unemployment would make it difficult for Colombians to pay loans).
However, They hope that in the next meetings, between June and September, the board will lower the intervention rates by 11.25% and 10%, respectively.
The projection for the closing of the interest rate in the year is the same as the expectation of the previous month (8.5%).
Interest rates
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GDP, dollar and inflation
Likewise, market analysts predict that by 2024 economic growth would close in a range between 1.3% and 1.5%, with 1.3% as the median response, a figure that decreases slightly compared to the 1.4% expected in May.
For its part, the median for 2025 was 2.5% (stable compared to the previous month), ranging between 2.0% and 2.7%.
According to the Fedesarrollo survey, growth expectations for the second quarter of 2024 were in a range between 0.9% and 1.5%, with 1.2% as the median response, increasing compared to 1% in the May edition . The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2024 was 1.5%.
(Also: Minhacienda, Mintrabajo, Dian and ANI account for 70% of the cut to the 2024 National Budget).
In terms of economic growth, they foresee an annual variation in GDP of 1.2% for the second quarter of 2024 and 1.5% for the third quarter of 2024. For 2024 and 2025 they expect growth of 1.3% and 2.5%, respectively.
In relation to inflation, analysts estimate it at 7.12% by the end of the month and 5.65% by the end of 2024, values that are above the target range of the Bank of the Republic.
Finally, the exchange rate expectation for June and December 2024 was located at 4,100 and 4,080, respectively.
In addition to the Financial Opinion Survey, Fedesarrollo also presented the results of the Stock Market Confidence Index in June, which stood at 93.1%.
For its part, the Resilience Index in the equity market ended at 65%, while the Immunity Index at 40.9% and the Valuation Index at 93.2%.
Analysts expect the MSCI COLCAP to be at 1,389 by the end of the month.
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