Inflation in June takes away the opportunity for Banxico to lower rates

Jesús López, deputy director of economic analysis at Banco Base, told Expansion that with the droughts and intense rains in some areas of the country, further increases in food prices can be observed.

“In June and July we will most likely see this turning point in inflation. We are expecting that by June inflation will be close to 4.8%, and by July it will begin to decline towards 4.7%, and from there it will gradually go towards 4.4%. % in December,” highlighted the economist.

For specialists such as Alejandro Saldaña, economic director at Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (Bx+), non-core inflation will no longer help the disinflationary process.

“We are going to depend more and more on services beginning to give way. And speaking of services, in this reading we saw a marginal moderation. However, we cannot yet speak of an inflection point. Let us remember that the services component has been passing through with a greater delay all these shocks of recent years,” highlighted Saldaña.

Bittersweet news for the Mexican economy is that in the second semester, faced with a slowdown in the economy, inflation could give way to this effect.

Within the underlying component, analysts show concern about inflation in services.

“We are associating it a lot with the labor issue. Now, how structural is it? Demographically we believe that the supply of labor in the country is going to be increasingly limited and probably structured in a way. It is structural that the Mexican economy is is already chronically facing a tight labor market and this puts pressure on salaries,” Sañdaña added.

Banxico will publish its Monetary Policy decision this Thursday and with the inflation data they expect the rate to remain at 11%.

Going forward, Banxico is expected to make, at most, three more cuts to the reference rate and to close the year at levels above 10%.