SOUTHEAST ASIA The attraction of the BRICS advances among the ASEAN countries

Thailand and Malaysia are the latest two countries to express interest in the China-sponsored global forum. According to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur, the decision to join has already been made. The Philippines and Vietnam are more cautious and fear a further strengthening of Beijing’s political hegemony even in maritime disputes.

Bangkok () – A growing number of ASEAN countries are considering joining the BRICS or have expressed interest in doing so in the future. Laos and Myanmar had already declared their interest last year and in January the head of Indonesian diplomacy, Retno Marsudi, explained that Jakarta is evaluating the possible benefits of joining the BRICS, while Vietnam for now is only “carefully observing the process of income”.

The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs reportedly submitted a formal request in the second half of June. And Malaysia openly expressed its intention to join the group on June 16, just three days before Li Qiang’s visit, the first by a Chinese prime minister since 2015. The decision was also warmly referred to by the head of the Malaysian government. , Anwar Ibrahim, who in an interview with the Chinese news portal Guanchaconfirmed that “the decision has been made” and the procedures will begin shortly.

Other governments of the ten members of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, have so far expressed themselves more cautiously, with two of the founders, the Philippines and Vietnam, simply observing. One of the reasons, shared by many countries and experts, is the fear that membership will lead to excessive dependence on the interests of larger partners, and in particular China, which has the capacity to impose most of the decisions and guidelines. .

A weight that is in no way balanced by the economic consistency of the other co-founders in 2002 (Brazil, India and Russia) or the subsequent incorporations, starting with South Africa in 2010, to which Egypt joined on January 1 of this year , Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. If the value of the members’ combined GDP is currently $28.5 billion (about 28 percent of the global economy), China alone is worth $18.5 billion. But its strategic importance, the breadth of its interests and a powerful military apparatus make Chinese needs a priority for the entire bloc, which in turn – with closer relations mediated for many by ideological interests – seems to welcome with few questions about Beijing’s leadership.

The possibility of taking one’s potential to a higher level in “an alternative leadership circuit of global governance” – as Alan Chong, a professor at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, suggests – appeals to many. But the risk is that, in a time as full of unknowns and tensions as the current one, the ASEAN countries – territorially close to the People’s Republic of China and connected at various levels to its economy – will not be able to oppose territorial claims that , in addition to Taiwan and the East China Sea areas, also include much of the South China Sea, an area of ​​specific economic interest to many Southeast Asian countries.