Le Pen would win and the left alliance would be second

Macron is an optimist in a country of pessimists. Last Sunday, in a meeting with ministers and political leaders in the Elysée, the head of state assured: “The absolute majority is within reach.” Against all the polls and against the impressions of the candidates campaigning on the ground.

The president continues to defend his order to dissolve the National Assembly. “On June 9 I made a serious decision that cost me a lot.. But, do not be afraid,” she said in the courtyard of her presidential residence, before the public gathered to listen to, among others, the Ukrainian-Canadian pianist Anastasia Rizikov. It was on Friday night during the concert on the occasion of the Music Festival.

In his line, he asked for a vote against the extremes: “Contrary to what they say, they are not a wall against the other, in fact they vote together in motions of censure.” “We cannot let any of the extremes pass”, he added. “There are many people who would like to dissolve the people. No! There are many people who would want to govern despite the people. No!”

At this point, it is clear that Macron was only right about half of the hypotheses that led him to dissolve the lower house early. Macron bet that the traditional right (The Republicans, LR) would implode. And so it has been, with the president of the party, Eric Ciottiexpelled by his barons after agreeing an alliance with Reunión Nacional (RN) of Marine Le Pen.

Macron was wrong, however, in thinking that the unity of the left was impossible to achieve in a week. The supplies of Jean Luc Melenchon (extreme left) and the socialists had launched all kinds of accusations and criticisms during the European campaign. They also disagree about Ukraine and Gaza…

However, the left has managed to unite under the banner of New Popular Front. From the extreme radical left to the socialists and social democrats of Rafael Glucksmann, going through communists, rebels and environmentalists. True, they continue to fight. They have not decided who would be prime minister in case of victory. He unsubmissive leaderMélenchon, wants to but all the partners – communists, environmentalists and socialists – have said no.

This coalition and the urgency of the call has meant that this time there was the half of candidates (an average of six) in each of the 577 constituencies.

Furthermore, participation, according to all the polls, will be much higher (63% seem determined to go to the polls). One million French people have already completed the paperwork to delegate the vote to another person, a procedure that involves going to a police station. This is nine times more than in 2022, when participation did not exceed 48%. It is worth remembering that in France you cannot vote by mail; which, together with the summer dates, has triggered the delegation of voting.

Who will benefit from the reduction in abstention? Impossible to know, according to experts. On the other hand, it does seem certain that this will cause the second round there are between 120 and 170 triangular, according to Gaël Sliman, president of the Odoxa institute. To be elected in the first round you must obtain 50% of the votes. The normal thing is that in almost all constituencies there is a second round between the two candidates with the most votes…and the third if this exceeds 12.55% of the votes of the registered voters. Thus, in 2022 there were only 8 triangular ones.

This is one of the factors that forces polling institutes to be very cautious with the projections of voting intentions, collected at the national level and the seats that are decided in 577 single-member constituencies.

Voting intentions seem clear right now. The extreme right would be the party with the most votes (33%-35%). The left alliance would collect between 27% and 29% and the presidential majority would be between 19.5% and 21% of the vote. The data comes from three surveys published on Friday: Ifop for The FigaroOpinionWay for Le Journal du dimanche and Odoxa for Le Nouvel Obs.

200 and 240 extreme right deputies

Thus, Ifop estimates that the new Assembly could have between 200 and 240 extreme right deputies, including the supporters of Ciotti, former leader of the classic right (10 to 20). For the RN of Le Pen would be such an incontestable victory (now it had 89 deputies) as insufficient, since the absolute majority is 289 seats.

The left could add between 180 and 210 minutes (now, 134) and the presidential majority would lose more than half of its seats current (250) dwindling to a group of between 80 and 110 deputies.

For Odoxa, RN is halfway between the absolute and relative majority (250 to 300 seats), the left would have between 160 and 210 minutes and the pro-Macron majority would remain between 70 and 120 seats.

Political tripolarization of France

Certainties of the polls: the political tripolarization of France is a fact. The decline of the classic right, approved in the European PP, continues: after the split of those in favor of allying with Le Pen, the refractory ones would only add 6.5% of votes that would be worth between 10 and 59 seats (now they had 61). The other extreme right force, Reconquest of Éric Zemmour, on the way to the slaughterhouse (1.5%), zero seats. Marine le Pen’s niece, Marion Marechalwould be among those who would save their heads after joining the forces of the RN.

Sociological certainties are also the following. The extreme right will once again be the most voted force among workers (57% +1), the unemployed (48% +5) and those without diplomas (46% +2). By age group, the left will have the most votes among young people aged 25 to 34 (48%) followed by the extreme right (35%) which would prevail among those aged 35 to 49 (42%) and those aged 50 to 64 (38%). Macron is still loyal to those over 65 years of age.

Marine Le Pen’s party has managed to win the vote of 38% of women and 32% of men. On the contrary, the left would have more men (29%) than women (25%).

Voter loyalty can be key. The Macronists seem the most doubtful (74%) along with the socialists (69%) and environmentalists (78%) while Mélenchon’s supporters seem determined to support their candidates en masse (92%).

In short, with seven days left until the most important legislative elections in France in decades, Le Pen and the president of her party are leading the way to victory. The polls show that Macron’s bet is on the way to becoming a shot in the president’s foot, but he, an irreducible optimist, still trusts that dissension will make an impact on the left in such a way that in the heat of the triangular elections of the second round (July 7) and the propaganda machinery of the system, can turn the party around.

“If we lose, I prefer to give him the keys to Matignon [residencia del primer ministro] to the RN in 2024 than those of the Elysée to Marine Le Pen in 2027“said Macron on 9-J before the stupefied leaders of his majority. The president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, has stated in public that if he does not have an “absolute majority he will refuse to be appointed prime minister.” For this reason, people are beginning to talk about a government of technicians, Belgian style.