More than 50% of the investments made by the Afores are made in fixed income, in government bonds such as Cetes, and given the exposure to other variable income instruments, such as stocks, it is expected that the resources moved by administrators will suffer falls of Until 3%.
“Yes, we are going to see significant losses if the trend (in volatility) continues. I would think between 2.5% and 3%, which is a little bit what the fixed income indices have yielded,” said Luis Gonzali, vice president and co-director of Investments at Franklin Templeton Mexico.
Capital losses are temporary losses that Afores have in times of volatility.
The specialist said that the volatility of June could be compared to the volatility seen in October 2018, when López Obrador canceled the New International Airport in Mexico City and the Afores had losses of 131,649 million pesos.
“We are going to see something similar; “The market continues to digest the result of the elections and what it implies, but it is not something that is going to nullify the investment,” he added.
The economist highlighted that as the names of the cabinet members are announced, volatility will begin to subside because the markets “do not like uncertainty.”
Although pending issues such as the reform of the Judiciary are on the table, an issue that will remain volatile, the specialist believes that nervousness will continue until Claudia Sheinbaum takes office.
The specialist mentioned that in the remainder of the year there will be movements in the market, and it may become more pronounced in the coming months because the United States will begin its electoral process to elect a president.
“(Volatility) is part of the electoral process and eventually we are going to converge towards normality again, the problem is that it may take us a while to digest what is happening; Uncertainty is what generates volatility,” she noted.
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