GEORGIA-AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA Fear in the Caucasus due to Georgia’s change of course

Tbilisi’s turn towards Moscow also threatens to have repercussions on the gas pipelines that connect Azerbaijan with Europe through its territory. And Armenia, which is trying to break away from Russia, could also lose its most important ally.

Baku () – The countries of the South Caucasus, and in particular Azerbaijan, observe with some concern the course of politics in Georgia, which with the approval of the “Russian law” and other decisions is distancing itself from the West, with the risk that this creates a more complicated situation for the entire region. The United States has enacted a series of sanctions against pro-Moscow politicians and sympathizers, and US State Department representative Matthew Miller stated that the United States could “review the entire aid program provided to Georgia” due to increasing bias anti-western.

In recent years, Miller explained, some $390 million has been allocated, and now everything is being questioned, far beyond the granting of entry visas to Georgian citizens. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also spoke of restrictions that will be imposed on “those who are harming democracy in Georgia.” The problem for Baku is that these barriers could also affect energy and transportation development plans, which precisely affect the route between Azerbaijan and Europe.

It is no coincidence that in recent days the EU has proposed to Ukraine not to stop transporting gas even after the definitive termination of the contract with Russia, with a new plan by which European companies would buy gas from Azerbaijan and then transport it over the gas pipelines that go from Ukraine to Europe, which would be a great boost for the Ukrainian economy itself.

As the Georgian diplomat and analyst Mamuka Gamkrelidze comments, “every sudden change in our country’s foreign policy is also reflected in some way in our neighbors, even more so in a region like the South Caucasus, where different logistical routes and interests intersect. of so many international actors”. The shift from west to east, and especially to the north, “could have tragic effects for Georgia, to the point of losing its sovereignty,” warns Gamkrelidze.

These circumstances would also greatly affect the situation in Armenia, which in turn is trying to turn westward, and could lose its most immediate ally. The effects on Azerbaijan, according to the analyst, “would be less direct”; Europe needs hydrocarbon flows, crucial for the geographical layout of the new Silk Road, and the close alliance with an important player like Turkey should preserve the Azeris from political or economic earthquakes.

Another Georgian expert, Gela Vasadze, member of the Center for Strategic Analysis, states that “we have been raising this issue for a long time, which not only affects the state of democracy in Georgia, but precisely the change of the entire geopolitical vector at the regional level.” As long as Georgia remains under the “roof” of the United States, several projects are possible on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan gas pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, Baku-Supsa and the South Caucasus gas pipeline in general, all of them impossible to carry out without the support from Washington.

Now there are fears that Russia, supported by Georgia, will impose restrictions on these works (perhaps not immediately, but over time), so as not to lose the priority of its own corridor between China and Europe, and not allow the Central Asian countries and the Caucasus divert their energy traffic towards alternative routes to Moscow. To do this, the Kremlin needs to maintain control over the South Caucasus, and first it needs Georgia.

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