Meloni’s hybrid formula for a conservative turn in the EU

With data in which the prime minister not only revalidates but increases her leadership in Italy, after an overwhelming victory – even more so than the last generals who handed her the keys to the Chigi Palace a year and a half ago – Giorgia Meloni She is rising, in recent hours, as the future voice of the extreme right in the Union, in the political context that guarantees her being the head of the Government of precisely one of the founding countries of the EU. She is too radical to be a popular politician, but also too moderate to be simply associated with Marine Le Pen in France and the Alternative for Germany party in the German country. Not perhaps, the latter are a European group separate from Meloni: the former belong to Identity and Democracy (ID), while the latter is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), of which Meloni is precisely the president.

Said melonian mixture, which oscillates between the moderate right and the ultraconservative; It is precisely what could give the transalpine president the ability to play the role of interlocutor between both right-wing sectors of the European Parliament for the creation of the new European Commission for the next legislature. The president of the transalpine Council of Ministers is explaining, in the last few hours, the winner of the European elections, the popular Ursula von der Leyen; that she “European Union look to the right” and thus not having to ally with the socialists and liberals.

[El dilema de Meloni: sumarse a la coalición centrista de Von der Leyen o pactar con Le Pen]

Now the political axis is between Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen. In a relationship marked by a certain harmony between the two European leaders and they could have common points in several areas, where one of them is migration. In fact, it was last September when both, in the midst of the migration crisis in Lampedusa, met on the well-known Sicilian island to establish common points between Italy and the European Commission, to contrast the phenomenon of irregular immigration; halfway between an unreal blockade of Italian ports and unconditional welcome.

The truth is that, although on the outside they may look alike, Meloni and Salvini, Meloni and Le Pen, Meloni and Alternative for Germany are not the same. The Italian prime minister is ultraconservative, but pro-european; Therefore, it does not question Italy’s membership in the European Union (EU), also as a founding member. Le Pen, Salvini and Alternative for Germany, for example, by belonging to Identity and Democracy (ID) do define themselves as Eurosceptics. Giorgia Meloni, however, by belonging to the ECR, is part of the most conservative European group in the Union, but without questioning it. Matteo Salvinileader of the populist League, to give an idea, has based his recent electoral campaign on the slogan “More Italy, less Europe”.

The European elections last weekend have been a resounding success for Giorgia Meloni, even above expectations, surpassing the data obtained in the last general elections who saw her enter comfortably as the first female tenant of the Chigi palace. The match of her, Brothers of Italy (HDI) has obtained 29 percent of the votes, 3 points more than a year and a half ago.

The popular ones of Forza Italia (FI), by Antonio Tajani, has surpassed by 1.5 points the results obtained when the founder of the formation, Silvio Berlusconi, was still alive; therefore reaching more than 9 percent, thus overtaking the right-wing populists of Matteo Salvini (Liga) who also grew by one percentage point. The conservative coalition, therefore, improves by 3.5 points compared to the last transalpine general elections, placing the right-wing bloc at 47.5% compared to the left-wing opposition.

Surprise on the side of the reformists, where the left of the Democratic party (PD) led by Elly Schlein, have obtained 24 percent of the votes, 5 points more than the last legislative elections that occurred in the boot-shaped country; thus reducing the distance, of 5 points, between the Democratic Party (PD) and Brothers of Italy (HDI) of the transalpine prime minister, Giorgia Meloni. Significant defeat, however, for the anti-establishment of the 5 Star Movement (M5E) Giuseppe Conte; who go from 15 to 10 percent of the preferences.

There is a political actor, apparently secondary, who could play an important mediation game, not so much between the different rights within the Union; but more specifically between Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen. Is about Antonio Tajani, Foreign Minister of the transalpine prime minister and, as leader of the popular Forza Italia (FI), visible face of the European and moderate right in the country. By being a member of European People’s Party (EPP), its candidate, who also won, is Ursula von der Leyen. But, on the other hand, Giorgia Meloni is its head of the Executive, and she herself wanted him in the Foreign Ministry as a guarantee of Europeanism on the part of Italy in the face of Brussels. Tajani, who was also president of the European Parliament, could be the bridge for future negotiations and possible misunderstandings between Ursula von der Leyen and Giorgia Meloni, where each will play their own cards in the game for the right in Europe.