join Von der Leyen’s centrist coalition or make an agreement with Le Pen

The surprise came from high degree of resistance from the ‘grand coalition’ of popular, socialist and liberal groups, which guaranteed the stability of the EU during the last legislature. The three great traditional political families have achieved retain the absolute majority of the European Parliament, with 400 seats. “There is still a majority in favor of a strong Europe at the center of the political spectrum. In other words, the center has resisted,” he said this Monday. Ursula von der Leyen during an event in Berlin.

The result clears the way for the German repeats a second term as head of the European Commission, since the European People’s Party (EPP), in which she is a member, has been the clear winner of the elections with 186 seats. Von der Leyen has offered socialists and liberals to reissue the ‘grand coalition’. “Together we will form a bulwark against the extremes of the left and the right,” she argues. The two groups say they are willing to negotiate in exchange for programmatic concessions.

[Sánchez negociará con el PP europeo en nombre de los perdedores sin intentar nunca pactar con Feijóo]

However, the support of socialists and liberals could be insufficient to guarantee the absolute majority (361 votes) that Von der Leyen needs to be confirmed by the European Parliament. The most veteran members of Parliament explain that should get at least 420-425 votes, in order to enjoy a sufficient safety net to cover possible defections. In Strasbourg there is no group discipline and some delegations (such as the French popular and socialists) have already announced that they will not support the German one. Others could opt out, taking advantage of the fact that the vote is secret. In 2019, the president was ratified by a slim margin of 9 votes.

This is where the Italian prime minister comes into play, Giorgia Meloni, whom Von der Leyen has courted throughout the campaign. Not only to guarantee the vote of a large country in the European Council, but above all to expand its security network in the European Parliament. Brothers of Italy has achieved a clear victory with 28.8% of votes and a total of 24 seats. A result that Meloni herself has described as “clamorous” and “very important politically”, especially because it contrasts with the defeats of Macron, Scholz and Sánchez.

Will Meloni support a second term for Von der Leyen? “It’s too early to give an answer. “We are still collecting the data and then we have to understand what the possible majorities are,” the Italian Prime Minister responded this Monday. in a radio interview. In his opinion, the message that comes out of 9-J is that “Europe must look much more to the center-right” and that the role of the left has to be “less important.” “The second fact is that Italy will have a fundamental role“, he indicated.

The Italian Prime Minister faces a dilemma whether it joins the centrist and pro-European majority that Von Der Leyen embodies. Or if, on the contrary, he opts for a pact with Marine Le Pen to create a far-right supergroup, which would be the second largest in the European Parliament and would have the capacity to block the functioning of the EU. “The route that Marine Le Pen is taking is a very interesting route“, Meloni said in her interview when asked about the results in France.

The leader of the National Group has swept in the European elections in France, with 31.4% of the votes and 30 seats, more than double that of Macron’s party. After the first exit polls were known, the French president called legislative elections for June 30 and July 7 in an attempt to regain the initiative.

“Meloni could provide external support to the Von der Leyen majority because the German has given guarantees that she will undertake policies more favorable to the conservatives, particularly in the field of migration. In exchange, Meloni will want a more relaxed green policy, with periods longer transition periods. Economic-industrial portfolios are always the most coveted in Romeso I think she will ask for one of these portfolios for her commissioner,” Arturo Varvelli, head of the think tank’s Rome office, explains to EL ESPAÑOL. European Council on Foreign Relations.

“I don’t see the usefulness of a far-right supergroup for Meloni. For Le Pen, yes, because she wants visibility ahead of the 2017 presidential elections in France and respectability. On the other hand, Meloni would lose the respectability he has achieved in Brussels. Furthermore, these are two strong women, who would be the leader of the group?” says a senior European official.

Since coming to power, Meloni has behaved in Brussels like a pragmatic leader. He joined the consensus on central reforms such as the Migration and Asylum Pact, the new fiscal rules or the sanctions against Russia and the shipment of weapons to Ukraine, distancing himself from other ultra governments such as those of Hungary or previously Poland. “She is clearly pro-European,” Von der Leyen says of her. At the same time, the Italian Prime Minister remains faithful to his alliances with Vox and other europhobic forces, as demonstrated in the conclave of far-right parties organized in Madrid on May 19.

Now the results of 9-J have made Meloni in kingmaker and they force you to choose. Or Von der Leyen or Le Pen. The two are not compatible. The president of the Commission has flatly excluded any type of collaboration with the National Group, which places it in the group of “Putin’s friends who want to destroy Europe.” For her part, Le Pen has made it a priority to end the “toxic mandate” of Von der Leyen, whom he accuses of “leading a disastrous policy for the people of Europe.”