CENTRAL ASIA The advance of the Turanian world in Central Asia

The Turkish concentration in the South Caucasus has shown how advantageous the alliance with Ankara is, capable of replacing the one it maintains with the Russians committed in Ukraine. In the background is the great project of a “Middle Corridor”, which links Asia with Europe without passing through Moscow.

Moscow () – Several commentators in the Western and Central Asian media are trying to understand the extent to which Turkey’s influence in Central Asia is being strengthened, taking advantage of Russia’s weakening role at the regional level to relaunch its own “neo-Ottoman” projects. “from a Great Turkish World. In this context of geopolitical transitions, the West is also trying to insert itself to create ties that allow greater access to the numerous natural resources of Central Asia, removing them mainly from the Kremlin’s sights.

The expert from the Swedish Institute of International Relations Joan Engvall published an article on this topic in the American magazine National Interest, recalling how precisely Russia, after isolation due to the sanctions regime for the invasion of Ukraine, has undertaken a very “opportunistic” approach. in economic relations with Turkey. Turkish exports to Russia have increased greatly, but according to Engvall not everything works ideally, precisely because of the competition from the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, which Moscow is increasingly struggling to control.

Turkey has been strengthening its presence in the Caspian area since 2020, against the background of the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. With military support, Baku has taken some of the credit for recovering parts of Azerbaijani territory, as a symbol of the expansion of Turkish-speaking regions. And in September 2023, “under the eyes of Russian peacekeepers,” as Engvall notes, all of Karabakh returned to Azerbaijani hands, until the Russians completely withdrew their troops in April of this year. The Turkish commitment to the South Caucasus has shown how beneficial the alliance with Ankara is for all Turkic countries, which replaces the one maintained with the Russians in Ukraine, as a guarantee of security until Central Asia.

Another major project links these States with Turkey, that of the Trans-Caspian transport corridor, which avoids routes in which Russia intervenes, also known as the Middle Corridor, which combines automobile, railway and river routes to link Asia with Europe. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey participate very actively in it, with the aim of creating a common development path by 2027, which will allow increasing transportation from 2 to 10 million tons of goods. The countries involved have committed to eliminating customs and trade barriers, expanding the narrowest spaces in sea ports and mountain valleys, and the EU has decided to participate in the project with financing of 10 billion dollars.

All of this is part of the design of the Organization of Turkish Countries, in which Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan currently participate, which have approved the “Future of the Turkish World-2040” program to support common development in education, trade and mobility of capital, services and technology, to human, cultural and religious relations, trying to imitate in many fields the model of the European Union itself. Also in diplomatic relations, many transformations are taking place in the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which seek to diversify and become more independent internationally, always with the support of Turkey and as an alternative to Russia.

The Australian agency Conversation also analyzes the increase in independence in the political line of the Central Asian countries. As Anastasia Mahone, a professor at the British university of Aberystwyth, writes, “a complete break in relations with Russia is unlikely, due to geographical proximity and economic dependence, but there are signs that Central Asian countries intend to adopt positions increasingly autonomous, without always looking at Moscow”. She recalls the statements against Russian annexations in Ukraine by the president of Kazakhstan, Kasym-Žomart Tokaev, and other distances taken in recent years by various leaders in the region. In her opinion, “Central Asia walks in a very fine balance between the past and the future and between the East, the West, the North and the South.”