The aircraft delivery forecast is reduced by 11%, to 1,583 shipments worldwide

June 9 () –

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects the number of aircraft delivered by 2024 to be 1,583, which is 11% less than expectations published just a few months ago, which anticipated that 1,777 aircraft would join the global fleet this year. anus.

This is clear from the ‘Global Air Transport Outlook’ report, which attributes this decline to the slowdown in the pace of deliveries due to persistent supply chain problems in the aerospace sector.

Furthermore, a large part of the world’s fleet is still parked in warehouses. Up to 14% of the fleet was in storage in 2023, compared to 10% on average in 2019 and 2020.

The study indicates that airlines have been directly affected by unforeseen maintenance problems on some types of aircraft/engines, as well as delays in the delivery of aircraft and aircraft parts, which has limited capacity expansion and the renewal of the fleet.

Delays in aircraft deliveries can have conflicting effects on airlines and their network. On the one hand, limited seat availability may prevent projected revenue growth from being maximized, while on the other hand, delays may improve profitability if higher load factors lead to higher yields, potentially improving margins.

“High interest rates tend to have a negative impact on net margins and tend to have a delayed impact on airline financing costs. The full effect of monetary policy tightening is likely to be felt in 2024 and 2025” , explains the IATA report.

In 2023, aircraft deliveries rose to 1,378, 11% more than the previous year, continuing the rebound after Covid-19. Airlines around the world continue to accept deliveries of new commercial aircraft that were mostly ordered before the pandemic, in response to strong demand and in favor of more fuel-efficient and quieter equipment.

THE PROBLEMS OF BOEING’S MAX 737

In addition, Boeing’s supply chain difficulties led to further delivery disruptions in 2023, before an incident on an Air Alaska 737 MAX 9 in flight on January 5 led to a new investigation by regulators. Americans, in addition to the paralysis of a good number of aircraft of that model and strict quality and production controls.

Safety-related production problems at Boeing are affecting the normalization of the aeronautical market, benefiting aircraft leasing and its competitor Airbus, in addition to resurgence of interest in the A380, according to Scope Ratings analyst Christian Vogel.

Specifically, the crisis in the American manufacturer favors the activity of aircraft rental companies, since the demand for air travel after the pandemic grows faster than the supply of aircraft.

Finally, Airbus also benefits from the duopoly it maintains with Boeing in the passenger aircraft market because it increases its production more successfully than its rival to meet strong demand.