Europe votes with the expectation of a triumph of the right and its radicalization in a dozen countries

The European Union live this Sunday a historic election day which could cause a earthquake in the traditional balance of forces that has governed community institutions over the last decades.

He European People’s Party, most voted party in Europe since 1999will continue to be the force with greater representation in the European Parliament, according to the vast majority of projections, but the great news in these elections it will be rise of parties to the right since they could exceed the threshold of 20% of the votes and become second force in Europe in an unprecedented ‘surprise’ of the European Social Democrats.

More of 372 million people are called to vote in the 27 EU countries in elections that will serve both to shape the next European Parliament, which will have 720 MEPsas if to mark the talks that will lead in a matter of weeks to the appointments of those who will hold the Commission presidenciesof the Advice and of his own European Parliamentin addition to the position of Head of Diplomacy of the EU.

Since the current legislative format was launched in 1979, popular and social democrats have always shared key positions with sporadic incorporations from other formations, such as those of the liberal center. A balance that, for the first time, is threatened due to the strong rise of more radical right-wing parties with the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the french Marine Le Pen as great protagonists.

He political landscape has changed significantly in many Member States throughout this European legislature marked by the Brexitthe pandemic and its economic consequences and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. These complex issues have served as breeding ground for populist discourses that have managed to make their way in many European countries where the electoral turnaround seems evident.

The clearest case, in this sense, is in France where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally awaits achieve a historic result this Sunday with a landslide victory.

In Austriathe Freedom Party, also considered extreme rightalso expect a important victory in the elections. In Italy, Poland, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia, Those that aspire to victory are the forces that are located in Europe in an intermediate space between the extreme right and the European People’s Party who, for his part, hopes get the victory in large countries like Germany and Spainin addition to Greece, Finland, Croatia, Slovenia or Luxembourg.

The social democrats They only have one victory in minor countries as Romania, Lithuania, Sweden or Maltawhile in countries like Portugal, Denmark or Belgiumhe stage seems to be very open.

In Czech Republic, Estonia and Bulgaria the polls predict possible victories of liberal parties while the Left could be the leading force in both Ireland and Cyprus. Lastly, in Netherlandsthe first State in which voting was carried out last Thursday, the exit polls indicate that the left-wing bloc of the greens and social democrats could have resisted the push of Geert Wilders’ far-right party.

Fragmentation on the right of the European PP

If the polls confirm the trends, the big stumbling block for the formation of a group of broader radical right that the socialist in the European Parliament will be in the agreements between parties of this space since, in the last legislatures, two different groups have coexisted on the right of the European People’s Party.

On the one hand, the group of Conservatives and Reformistspolitical family of Voxwho has known keep your strength in Europe despite the departure of its great founder, the British Conservative Party, as a consequence of Brexit, and in which there are formations that They hope to obtain an important representationas Brothers of Italy of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the Polish party Law and Justice or the party itself led by Santiago Abascal.

Besides, on the extreme right the group is found Identity and Democracywhose main forces are the historical French National Front (now National Group) commanded by Marine Le Pen and the Legacy from Italian Matteo Salvini.

The German party was also in this formation Alternative for Germany (AfD) until recent block breakup for some controversies statements of which his candidate was, Maximilian Krah, about the SS during the Nazi era.

Precisely this breakup could pave the way to one great alliance of the main parties of these two right-wing groups that could compete face to face with the European socialists for become second force in the European Parliament, also overtaking the liberal group of Renew which includes the French Renaissance, by the French president Emmanuel Macronin sharp decline in the polls, or Citizens which points to the disappearance in Europe.

The departure of the German far-right party means save one of the great red lines for the popular Europeansespecially for the CDU german from Ursula von der Leyen. However, another great stumbling block so that he PPE and, above all, the liberals led by Macron accept a grand coalition that leaves out the social democrats is Marine Le Pen.

This controversial surname, already in his father’s time, has always been linked to the extreme right and the more radical populism and has been located in the antipodes of European values.

No matter how much the training has tried to make a face wash in recent years in which, among other things, it has moderated his anti-European messages or has camouflaged his support for Vladimir Putin, Le Pen is another of the big red lines that von der Leyen’s candidacy has drawn. AND It does not seem that the overwhelming victory predicted by the polls in France can cause a change of mind in this sense.

The contacts between Le Pen and Meloniin addition to other politically similar forces, have been constants in recent weeks to try to reach an agreement regarding the formation of a broad group in the European Parliament.

However, also The EPP has flirted with the Italian in recent weeks. Von der Leyen herself, aware that Meloni’s support could be decisive in staying in power, has praised the positions of the transalpine prime minister on such relevant matters like the war in Ukraine.

Long negotiations: the deadlines after the vote

Everything indicates that It will be necessary to wait several weeks to know the exact composition of the European political groups and, therefore, the possible alliances to form a majority. What is already clear is that the EPP, which could once again exceed 180 seats, and the Social Democrats, who could drop below 140, will not add enough MEPs to reach a majority.

It would be necessary to add more forces to the pact, such as repeat alliance with the Liberals or look towards the Greens. However, these last two groups, like the social democrats, aim to worsen their results. Quite the opposite of a rising radical right that, due to numbers and trends, could enter future European pacts for the first time and leave out the social democrats. In any case, yes, the accounts would not be settled in case of agreement with the EPP so, again, it would be necessary to add the support of the Liberals of the center led by Macron.

In this new scene that is about to be drawn, Possible specific agreements between formations on one side and the other of the spectrum are not ruled out either., that is, those popular with both social democrats and the more moderate wing of the radical right. This possibility, complex and unprecedented, would be the only option that would allow national governments that are practically at ideological opposites to be represented in the majority of decision-making, as is currently the case with the Italian Meloni and the spanish from Pedro Sánchez.

This Sundaystarting at 8:15 p.m., the European Parliament will offer a first provisional projection of the composition of the new European Parliament and we will have to wait until 11pmwhen the polling stations close in Italy, to know the first official data that will be updated throughout the morning.

Already from Mondaywith the results in hand, the period will open formation of political groups in which the parties they will have several weeks to agree before the first part-session of the new Parliament.

More than a month later, the week of July 16the new legislature will officially begin and the president of the institution will be chosen. In between, there are planned at least two meetings of European leaders that will negotiate to seek a political balance for the appointment of the main positions for community institutions.

The final vote in the European Parliament to elect the next president of the commission is planned in the week of September 16 while the months of October and November are reserved for hearings of future European commissioners.

Except surprise, This would be the turn for the until now vice president of the Government and PSOE candidate, Teresa Riberathat aims to occupy a relevant portfolio in the future community executive.