The CIS insists that the PSOE will win the European elections but reduces its advantage over the PP

The PSOE will win the European elections with about three points ahead of the PP, according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The last barometer before the elections keeps the socialists in the lead, but indicates that they are falling and that their advantage over the PP has been reduced since the five points included in the last survey.

Behind, Vox adds one point and consolidates itself in third place for this Sunday’s elections, Sumar leaves a few tenths behind its vote estimate, Podemos falls and the candidacy of ultra Alvise Pérez would be fifth force. This barometer, published before the ban on publishing polls comes into force tonight, does not estimate how many MEPs each party will get. The CIS also states that 31% of those surveyed have not yet decided who they will vote for.

According to the survey, the PSOE would win the elections with between 31.6 and 33.2% of the votes, compared to the between 32.8 and 35.5% predicted by the CIS in the delivery published on May 23. The PP, for its part, would come second, although it improves its expectations for 9N by a few tenths: it goes from between 27.9 and 30.2% to between 28.3 and 30.5%. The CIS is the only poll that predicts that the PSOE will be above the PP in the elections, although this week some point to the possibility of a tie.

Vox is establishing itself and it seems clear that it will obtain third place in the European elections, which it already achieved in the general elections of 23J. The far-right party will obtain between 9.9 and 11% of the votes, an increase compared to the previous barometer, which gave them between 8.6 and 10.1%.

Sumar has no options to fight for that third place with Vox. Furthermore, the party drops a few tenths compared to the previous poll’s estimate: it goes from obtaining between 5.9 and 7.2 to between 5.4 and 7.1% of the votes. Podemos, for its part, falls in this installment: if in the previous one the CIS gave it between 4.4 and 5.5% of the votes, this time it estimates that it will be left with between 3.6 and 3 .9%.

In fact, Podemos loses fifth place in this barometer, which would be for the candidacy led by the ultra agitator Alvise Pérez. His coalition of voters called Se Acabó la Fiesta would obtain between 4.9 and 5.7% of the votes, compared to the previous estimate, which gave him between 2.9 and 3.8%.

His candidacy also manages to overtake the one made up of ERC, EH Bildu, BNG and Ara Mes, and which is running in the European elections under the name of Ahora Repúblicas. They would obtain between 3.7 and 4.1% of the votes, compared to 3.9 and 5% in the previous barometer. Junts, for its part, would have between 1.5 and 1.6% of the votes, a drop compared to between 2.2 and 3% in the previous installment.

In the fight for the last seats there is a change. If in the previous Ciudadanos barometer the Coalition for a Europe of Solidarity (CEUS) – which includes political forces such as the PNV or Canarian Coalition – was imposed, now it has changed. Ciudadanos falls and would be left with between 0.7 and 1.2%, and CEUS will surpass them by obtaining between 1 and 1.3%.

The PSOE retains voters from the general elections and Vox loses them due to Alvise

The CIS reports that the PSOE will be the one that best retains its 23J voters (77.2%), above the PP, (75.9%), which loses 6.6% of its votes. Of Vox, 60% would repeat, but almost 20% go to Alvise’s candidacy and 14.1% to the PP. Adding would only retain 37.6% of the 23J voters, because 25.1% would now go to the PSOE and 22.3% to Podemos.

Among those who did not vote on 23J and will do so now, the CIS reports that 18.9% will vote for the PSOE, 17.7% for the PP, 8.5% for Vox and Alvise’s candidacy appears. Pérez in that group with 7.5%.

The CIS barometer also asks about the grades of the main candidates. The PSOE, Teresa Ribera, is the only one who approves, with a 5.2, followed by Dolors Monserrat (PP) with a 4.5. Estrella Galán, from Sumar, obtains a 3.9, Irene Montero (Vamos) a 3.5, Jordi Cañas (Ciudadanos) a 3.3, Jorge Buxadé, from Vox, a 3.2 and Alvise Pérez a 3.1.