As Maduro goes from denying migration to defending it, Venezuelans consider leaving if he is re-elected

One of Venezuela’s most influential politicians once said that the images of his compatriots leaving the country were the work of a “Hollywood-type blockbuster.”

Diosdado Cabello affirmed that migration was an issue invented by a “media apparatus.” Similarly, his boss, President Nicolás Maduro, denied for years, at least in public, that millions of people were leaving Venezuela.

However, nothing could have made them abandon that denial and accept the situation faster than the fact that the existence of the government they describe as socialist is at risk for the first time in years.

As Maduro seeks reelection against a divided, reduced and disappointed base, he has gradually become a defender of migrants who questions reports linking some to criminal activities and accuses the immigration authorities of other countries of mistreating Venezuelans.

Maduro, like the main opposition coalition, promises job opportunities to persuade people to return or not leave. But unlike the opposition’s proposals, theirs no longer sound credible to many voters, and they may have already made up their minds: If Maduro wins on July 28, they will become migrants.

“I love Venezuela. I would like to pursue my career as a doctor here in Venezuela, but one has to think about the future,” said Arnaldo Benítez, 18 years old. “I want my family to have a decent life and not be thinking ‘Oh, I won’t be able to afford this or that.’ So I have to look forward to a good future, even if it is unfortunately leaving Venezuela.”

Benítez, who finished high school last year, plans to move to Colombia, which has received the largest share of the more than 7.7 million Venezuelans who have emigrated as their country collapsed in the last decade. Other people in his rural town of Torococo are also waiting for the results of the elections to decide when to leave, he said, although a group of 20 people thought it would be better not to wait and left in early May.

A national survey conducted last month by Venezuela-based research firm Delphos showed that around a quarter of the population is thinking about emigrating, mainly for economic reasons. Of those thinking about leaving Venezuela, around 47% said that an electoral victory for the opposition would make them stay, and around the same indicated that an improvement in the economy would keep them in their native country.

Decisions about emigrating dominate conversations in shopping malls, high schools and political rallies. Some people save as much money as they can from various jobs, while others sell their belongings.

In the 11 years since Venezuelans learned that the president, Hugo Chávez, had died, and his chosen successor, Maduro, would take over, falling oil prices, corruption and government mismanagement have engulfed the country into a complex crisis, and has plunged people into poverty, hunger, poor health, crime, desperation and emigration. The economic sanctions imposed in the last decade have failed to overthrow Maduro, as the United States and other governments intended, but they contributed to the crisis.

In recent months, the president has accused the media, including The Associated Pressto wage a campaign against Venezuelan migrants “saying that all the crimes in the world today are committed by Venezuelans.”

“To the Venezuelan migrants, we love you and our love makes us say, ‘Come back!’ We are waiting for you here, this is your land. Enough xenophobia and persecution,” he stated.

Maduro wants to extend his mandate for another six years. Last year he reached an agreement with the opposition coalition Democratic Unitary Platform, which has the support of the United States, to work to improve the conditions for fair and free elections. But he has changed course since the meteoric rise of opposition leader María Corina Machado made her a genuine threat to his re-election chances, and he has used his party’s control over all government institutions to tilt the playing field to your favor.

The country’s highest court in January upheld an administrative decision that blocked Machado’s candidacy. His successor was also disqualified. She and the coalition They now support former diplomat Edmudo González Urrutia. Compared to Machado, who has campaigned for more than a year, few voters know González’s name or his background, but Machado’s support is enough to make many want to vote for him.

At his first rally in mid-May, González asked voters to imagine “a country where our airports and borders would be filled with our children coming home” if he won.

Miguel Montilla, 53 years old and with three children, retired from the armed forces after 27 years of service, but he and his family cannot live off his pension of about $20 a month. He said he would vote for González because he hoped the candidate would make changes that would encourage economic development and convince two of his children to return to Venezuela, just as Machado frequently promised during the campaign.

“I have lost my children because they had to withdraw from university and migrate. I want them to come and have a family life and a better future,” said Montilla, who has a small grocery store in Sabana de Mendoza. Her eyes filled with tears at the thought of the family being reunited, but after a few seconds of hope, she considered the other possibility after the election.

Regarding his other son, he noted, “I better encourage him to go if Maduro wins again. He has to go. Even one of them is going to have to leave.”

The Delphos survey showed that people aged 18 to 34 were most likely to consider leaving the country. The poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

The head of immigration in Colombia, Fernando García, told Congress this month that “we should expect a large influx of Venezuelan migrants” if Maduro wins. The director of the Migration Colombia agency said that the president’s re-election, along with recent decisions by the US government to reactivate some sanctions on Venezuela, create the conditions that can lead to migration.

Most Venezuelan civil servants earn a monthly minimum wage of $3.60 plus $130 in bonuses, while private sector workers earn an average of $210 a month. None of these salaries are enough for a family to buy a basket of basic products, which costs about $380.

At a rally organized this month by the government in the capital, Caracas, low wages were the only reason mentioned by some high school students who acknowledged that they were considering emigrating this year. They dream of becoming engineers, owning businesses, and caring for the sick, but everyone is willing to postpone or forget those goals.

Many students wore their uniforms and some wore t-shirts in support of the president, although when asked they did not want to speak in his favor. Jaxael Rivera, a high school senior, and other students from public schools throughout Caracas were bused to the rally, where Maduro later spoke.

“I would need a good income to stay,” said Rivera, who plans to join his sister in Spain, where he has lived for two years.

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