New Caledonia, France’s strategic overseas territory in the Pacific Ocean, faces one of the worst crises in its history. The archipelago was plunged into a wave of unprecedented violence, after France decided to promote a controversial reform that would allow foreigners with only 10 years of residence in the territory to vote, to the detriment of the local population of the Kanak ethnic group (40% of the total population). The violence resulted in looting, fires and clashes in the streets that left at least 7 dead and hundreds injured.
The main political movements in New Caledonia, among which the Socialist National Liberation Front stands out, have been promoting independence since the 1970s, in a territory that has belonged to France since 1853. The independentists lost two recent referendums, in 2018 and 2020. A third attempt was boycotted in 2021, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, Macron had urged Caledonians to relax the rigid electoral system. Finally, this year the National Assembly approved by a large majority the reform that, if applied, would incorporate some 25,000 new non-native voters, on a registry that in 2021 was approximately 200,000 voters.
Logically, the Kanak fear that their votes will be diluted by Europeans who are mostly in favor of New Caledonia remaining as a dependency of France. It should be remembered that the independence position lost by just 10,000 votes in the last referendum in 2020. Currently, the electoral system in force restricts the right to vote to natives and those who settled in New Caledonia along with their descendants before the Noumea Agreement of 1998. .
Macron’s emergency trip in the midst of the crisis
French President Emmanuel Macron traveled urgently to New Caledonia on May 23 to try to contain the crisis, but his visit was a complete failure. Macron returned to Paris after spending just 18 hours in the territory, where he had to evade violent protests and received harsh questions from locals. “The economic and social damage (from the unrest) is enormous and unprecedented,” Macron told reporters waiting for him in the capital, Noumea.
Despite the seriousness of the situation and the impossibility of establishing stable bridges of dialogue with the sectors that oppose the reform, Macron insisted that he has no intention of abandoning the reform and even hinted at the possibility of subjecting it to a referendum in which All French citizens would participate. As the only sign of appeasement, Macron said that “for now” the reform will not be applied and that the situation will be re-analyzed in a month. He also promised to lift the “state of emergency.” These minimal gestures from Macron did not calm the protests, which continued to escalate after his departure.
France has sent hundreds of additional troops to New Caledonia since the start of the unrest, reaching a total of 3,000 troops on the ground in May, something the Khanaks emphatically reject. At the same time, France denied Australia and other countries in the region the possibility of sending special flights for the evacuation of their nationals. From France’s perspective, it would be a clear sign of weakness that would embolden other overseas territories. In fact, the authorities of French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe and Réunion expressed their solidarity with the Khanaks’ claim.
On the other hand, France decided to ban the use of the TikTok app in New Caledonia. Although several French organizations, such as the Human Rights League, considered the lack of evidence of a link between the use of TikTok and violence, Macron decided to block it anyway.
Allegations of foreign interference in New Caledonia
The French government’s accusations of foreign interference in the protests in New Caledonia drew a lot of attention. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin explicitly criticized Azerbaijan, while other French officials also pointed the finger at China and Russia. Although no evidence was presented in this regard, the existence of the “Initiative Group” financed by Baku is certain, which has brought together independence forces from several French overseas territories since last year and promotes anti-colonial activities against France around the world.
In the case of China, Xi Jinping has just concluded a very momentous and friendly visit to France. There is no indication that there is any interest from Beijing in fostering destabilization in New Caledonia, although some analysts point to Chinese advances in the region, particularly following recent agreements with the Solomon Islands. These are movements that not only worry France, but above all the United States, Australia and New Zealand. Anyway, 39% of New Caledonia’s nickel exports go to China. The disruption of that industry due to protests presents a growing concern for Beijing. In the case of Russia, there are no signs of interference or concrete benefits from the crisis either.
Social inequality and nickel, in the background of the protests
Independence is not the only divisive factor between the Kanak and the Europeans. A historical and frequent complaint of the local community refers to social and economic inequality. Independence supporters argue that young Khanaks are marginalized and losing jobs to Europeans. The poverty rate among locals is 32.5%, compared to 9% among non-Khanaks, according to the 2019 census.
And this inequality is closely linked to the characteristics of the economy of the archipelago, famous for hosting the fifth largest nickel reserve in the world and being the third largest producer globally. The protests precisely led to the paralysis of activity in the main deposits, affecting the operations of companies in the sector. In that sense, a quarter of New Caledonia’s workforce is employed in the nickel industry. But locals complain about poor working conditions and that the wealth generated by the sector does not benefit living conditions and causes environmental damage. Something similar to what happens in other colonial enclaves in the Pacific Ocean.
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