The testimony in the trial against Donald Trump in New York for altering financial records to make improper payments to silence unfavorable news has practically concluded after more than four weeks and around twenty witnesses, which means that the case is heading to a crucial final stretch: arguments closing, jury deliberation and a possible verdict.
It’s impossible to say how long all of that will take, but in a landmark trial that has already featured its fair share of memorable moments, this week could well be the most important.
Here’s what to expect in the coming days:
What happens during closing arguments?
Starting Tuesday morning, prosecutors and defense attorneys will have their last chance to address the jury with their closing arguments, which are expected to last much, if not all, of the day.
The arguments do not count as evidence in the case in which Trump is accused of falsifying financial records during the 2016 presidential election to cover up payments to silence a porn actress who alleged that he had a sexual encounter with the former president a decade ago. Instead, they will serve as several-hour summaries of the key points that the prosecution and defense want to be in jurors’ minds before deliberations begin.
The prosecution will try to remind jurors that they can trust the financial documents they have seen and the witnesses they have heard. That includes porn actress Stormy Daniels, whose account of an alleged sexual encounter with Trump is a central part of the case, and Trump’s former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, who testified that the former president was directly involved in the improper payments scheme, the which he authorized.
It is worth remembering that the defense, which only called two witnesses, but not Trump, does not have to prove anything or convince jurors of Trump’s innocence.
To avoid a conviction, the defense only needs to convince at least one jury that prosecutors failed to prove Trump’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, the standard for criminal cases.
The defense is expected to try to find holes in the government’s case by questioning Daniels’ testimony about her meeting with Trump in a hotel suite, and distancing Trump from the mechanics of the refunds to Cohen, who was responsible for the payment. $130,000 to Daniels in exchange for his silence.
The defense could also make a final argument that, when it came to the improper payments, Trump was more concerned about protecting his family from salacious stories than winning the election.
And it will certainly attack the credibility of Cohen, who pleaded guilty to federal charges related to the payment and whom Trump’s lawyers have accused of lying even on the witness stand. How much the jury determines that his testimony is credible will go a long way toward deciding the case.
Since the burden of evidence falls on the prosecution, it will be the last to present its arguments — in reverse order of the opening statements.
One last thing before the jury begins deliberations
A critical moment will occur before the jury begins deliberating, probably Wednesday morning.
Judge Juan M. Merchan plans to dedicate an hour to instruct the jury on the law that governs the case, which will constitute a roadmap on what can and cannot be taken into account when evaluating guilt or innocence. of the former president.
In an indication of how important these instructions are, prosecutors and defense attorneys engaged in an intense debate last week — without the jury present — in which they tried to persuade Judge Merchan about what instructions he should give.
Trump’s team, for example, requested an instruction informing jurors that the types of improper payments in question are not illegal per se, a request that one prosecutor called “totally inappropriate.” Merchan said such an instruction would be excessive and is unnecessary.
Trump’s team also asked Merchan to take into account the “extraordinarily important” nature of the case when instructing and urging the jury to reach “very specific findings.” Prosecutors also objected to this, and Merchan agreed that it would be a mistake to deviate from standard instructions.
“When they say this is a very important case, they are asking me to change the law and I am not going to do that,” Merchan said.
The prosecution, for its part, requested that it be instructed that someone’s status as a candidate does not have to be the only reason for making a payment that benefits their campaign. Defense attorneys asked that the jury be told that if a payment had been made, even if the person was not in contention, it should not be considered a campaign contribution.
Once the jury receives the case
Their deliberations will take place in secret, in a room reserved specifically for jurors and in a process that is intentionally confusing.
Jurors can communicate with the court through notes in which they ask the judge, for example, for legal guidance or to have specific excerpts of testimony read to them. But without knowing the interaction between the jurors, it is difficult to read too much into the meaning of any score.
No one knows how long the jury will deliberate and there is no deadline either. The jury must weigh 34 counts of falsifying business records, so that could take some time and a verdict may not be returned before the end of the week.
To reach a verdict, whether guilty or not guilty, all 12 jurors must agree with their decision for the judge to accept it.
Things will be more complicated if the jury cannot reach a consensus after several days of deliberations. Although the defense could immediately request a mistrial, Merchan will likely call the jurors and instruct them to keep trying to reach a verdict and to be willing to reconsider their positions — without abandoning their conscience or judgment just to agree. with the rest.
If after that the jury still cannot reach a verdict, the judge would have the option of deeming the panel hopelessly deadlocked and declaring a mistrial.
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