The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of an “above average” hurricane season in the North Atlantic in 2024. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA)the forecast is attributed to the high heat of the oceans and the expected development of the La Niña meteorological phenomenon, which causes a significant cooling of the waters.
Normally, in an average year there are 14 named storms with winds exceeding 65 kilometers per hour. However, this year between 17 and 25 storms are expected, of which between four and seven could become very intense hurricanes, characterized by winds of at least 178 kilometers per hour. However, this year between 17 and 25 storms are expected, of which between four and seven could become very intense hurricanes, characterized by winds of at least 178 kilometers per hour. The usual average is three major hurricanes a year.
“It only takes one hurricane to make landfall to roll back years of socioeconomic development. For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017 cost Dominica 800% of its Gross Domestic Product,” explained the deputy secretary general of the WMOKo Barrett.
Advantages of surveillance and early warning
The WMO tracks hurricanes through its Tropical Cyclone Program. There have been eight consecutive years of above-average activity, with the last below-normal season occurring in 2015. Improved early warning and disaster risk management has significantly reduced the number of disaster-related fatalities. the Hurricanes.
However, the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean remain disproportionately affected, according to the WMO deputy director.
The UN agency has prioritized early warning initiatives for small islands under the international Early Warning for All initiative. At the International Conference on Small Island States next week in Antigua and Barbuda, they will advocate for more coordinated and targeted investment in early warning systems.
Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones, including hurricanes, were the main cause of human and economic losses worldwide, with more than 2,000 disasters. Despite this, the number of fatalities decreased from more than 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 between 2010 and 2019. The economic losses recorded between 2010 and 2019 amounted to $573.2 billion.
What’s in a name?
Naming tropical cyclones simplifies tracking and discussing specific storms, especially when multiple storms are active at the same time. This practice helps avoid confusion among meteorologists, the media, emergency management agencies, and the general public.
The WMO has established strict procedures for naming tropical cyclones, which vary by region. In the Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere, cyclones are named alphabetically, alternating between male and female names. In other regions, names follow the alphabetical order of the countries.
“We have to be especially vigilant this year due to near-record ocean heat in the region where hurricanes form of the Atlantic and the change to La Niña conditions, which together create the conditions for increased storm formation,” Barrett said.
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