IRAN Iraqi expert: Raisi’s death does not change the balance in Baghdad, in the hands of Khamenei

For Adel Bakawan, the death of the Iranian president (buried yesterday in his hometown of Mashhad) and Foreign Minister will not have a “significant impact” on relations. Relationships managed by the Pasdaran following the “dictates” of the Supreme Leader. Iranian influence on the Iraqi elite remains deep and “nothing seems feasible or governable without Tehran’s consent.”

Milan () – “It is very unlikely” that the death of the Iranian president and the foreign minister in the helicopter crash on May 19 “could have a significant impact on relations between Iran and Iraq.” This is highlighted in an interview given to by Adel Bakawan, director of the French Center for Research on Iraq (Cfri), with deep knowledge of Middle East affairs and, in particular, Iraq, Kurdistan and issues related to jihad and The terrorism. This is due to the fact that “these relationships […] They are not managed by the president or the government” but, he adds, by the Pasdaran who “follow the dictates of the supreme guide” Ali Khamenei.” Born in Iraq in 1971, the Franco-Iraqi professor and sociologist is also a member of the Institut de Recherche et d’Etudes Méditerranée Moyen-Orient – Iremmo, associate researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Political Studies (Carep) and professor at the University of Evry. “The fact is,” he observes, “that among Iraqi elites, Iranian influence remains pervasive and intense. “To the point that nothing seems feasible or governable without Tehran’s consent on key issues.”

Meanwhile, the Iranian president’s burial ceremony took place in Mashhad, his hometown, four days after the incident. The 63-year-old exponent of the radical faction, with a past of death sentences and frequent use of capital punishment, a possible successor to the position of supreme leader, was buried in the sacred shrine of Imam Reza, a revered figure in Shiite Islam. . Also among the seven dead was Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, 60, who was buried yesterday at the Shah Abdol-Azim shrine in Rey, a southern suburb of the capital, Tehran. In attendance was Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, who will hold office until the June 28 vote. The rhetoric of the state media did not hesitate to describe the president’s funeral as “historic,” attended by “millions of people.” In reality, there were also scenes of party and celebrations in the country for the disappearance of one of the “symbols” of the ongoing repression, which has worsened after the death of Mahsa Amini. A hunt for the opponent that has also crossed the borders of the Islamic Republic, to extend to Iraqi territory as has happened in recent months.

Below is the full interview with Adel Bakawan:

How did Iraq react to the death of the Iranian president (and foreign minister)?

The recorded reaction has occurred at two different levels: the state and the social. Regarding the first, the Iraqi government, which maintains close relations with Iran, has shown a cordial and compassionate response. This reaction has united diverse political and ethnic groups, including Sunni, Shia and Kurdish factions, all with strong ties to the Iranian government. Proof of this is that the Iraqi President and a delegation, together with the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, traveled to Tehran to offer their condolences. The situation was different at the level of society, of citizens, whose response was very different. There was a general feeling of satisfaction in a part of the population that saw Raisi as an oppressor. Therefore, we can speak of a division, of an evident fissure in the reaction to death between the high authorities of the State and society.

Tehran influences Iraqi politics and society in various ways: what consequences could this incident have? And which is the most credible version?

It is very unlikely that death [del presidente y del ministro de Asuntos Exteriores] have a significant impact on relations between Iran and Iraq. First, these relations are not managed by the Iranian president or government, but by the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran), who follow the dictates of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Regarding the helicopter accident, there are at least four credible versions in the country’s public opinion: technical problems with the helicopter; Adverse weather conditions; an attack by a foreign nation; an internal conspiracy orchestrated by Raisi’s opponents. However, the truth is that, so far, the Islamic Republic of Iran has not adopted any of these theses – at least officially – and the investigation into the incident continues.

Could what happened be a new factor of instability for Iraq and the Middle East in general?

No, I don’t consider it plausible. The disappearance of President Raisi will not affect in any way the management of power dynamics and relations in Iraq or, broadening the field, in the Middle East region. Because it is not the Iranian government that manages these issues, but the supreme leader who oversees and decides the Middle East agenda, including the conflict between Hamas, the militant groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, the civil war in Syria and relations in the Arab world in general.

At what level are relations between Tehran and Baghdad currently?

Iraq has significant importance in the Islamic world and is crucial to Iran’s national security. Consequently, Tehran can evaluate and negotiate its presence in other Middle Eastern countries with the exception of Iraq, and this for reasons related to security, economy, culture, geopolitics and religion itself. The Islamic Republic maintains strong relations with the three main segments of Iraqi society: the Shiites, the Kurds and the Sunnis. However, if one of these groups attempts to break away from Iranian influence, they face serious repercussions, as occurred in the recent past in the case of the Iraqi Kurds.

Raisi was scheduled to visit Iraq shortly, his first visit as president. What were the central topics of the meeting and what was the value of this visit?

The meeting had been eagerly awaited for several months. The main topics of discussion between President Ebrahim Raisi and the Iraqis were undoubtedly the economy, security (including the presence of Iranian opposition figures and groups on Iraqi soil) and diplomatic relations between both countries. Now we have to wait for the election of the next president of the Republic, but above all for there to be a favorable environment in both Iraq and Iran for such a high-level visit.

Tehran is the reference point of Shiite Islam. Is Iranian influence greater today from a political or religious point of view?

From a social point of view, Iraqis strongly resent Iranian influence in Iraq. This sentiment is reflected in the initial slogan of the protest movement: “Iran sleeps but Iraq must remain free.” The fact is that among Iraqi elites, Iranian influence remains pervasive and intense. So much so that nothing seems achievable or governable without Tehran’s consent on key issues.