The Iranian president and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who died in the helicopter crash, represented the area most open to cooperation with Russia, especially in the supply of weapons for the war in Ukraine. Khamenei will maintain control, but conflicts with Moscow over control of Syria remain in the background.
Moscow () – The death of the president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, shocked all countries in the world, but Russian experts believe, like many others, that the tragic incident will not provoke significant political changes in Tehran. The expert from the Institute of Orientalism of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Sažin recalls in an interview with Rbk that the full power belongs solely to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and for years “all branches of Iranian power, executive, judicial and legislative , are entrusted to the radical-conservative sector of the local political establishment, of which Raisi was an expression. According to Sažin, the group in power is also not very homogeneous and is made up of factions that fight among themselves for influence over politics, so “the death of the president can destabilize the situation in high places to a certain extent.” , although he rules out any possibility of revolution and coup d’état.
Another expert, Elena Suponina, from the Russian Council for International Affairs, believes that now the reformists who tend towards a more democratic and liberal turn could try to exploit the situation by presenting their own candidates, although “as long as Ali Khamenei is alive, everything will remain under control.” . However, the ayatollah is not considered the most outspoken supporter of an alliance with Russia, given Iran’s conflicts with Russia over control of Syria.
Commentators agree that what is really at stake now will be the succession of Khamenei, 85, for whom Raisi was the most influential candidate. New waves of mass protests are not ruled out either, while former Russian ambassador to Iran Aleksandr Marjasov believes that “the opposition movement is currently quite weak, only sometimes different strata of the population emerge, which do not unite… there is no “a center or a figure around which protests can gather.”
According to several Russian observers, Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian represented the sector most open to cooperation with Russia, especially in the delivery of weapons for Ukraine’s war with the infamous Shahed drones, but their disappearance does not should prelude a slowdown, much less the end of these agreements. If anything, Marjasov believes, “collaboration will expand even further, because these were the Supreme Leader’s instructions,” and it is just a question of who will take the initiative more openly.
Russia, after all, sponsors Iran’s entry into the SCO and the BRICS, and Putin was so concerned about the incident that he immediately sent two Il-76 planes with 50 rescue specialists to mountainous areas, which did not happen with the many Russians whose lives were endangered by recent floods and serious emergencies in many regions of Russia. As some commentators wrote, “Raisi’s salvation was more important than the salvation of the Russians.”
In any case, international tensions will continue to be high, taking into account the conspiracy theories circulating on social networks, which point to Israel’s involvement in the Raisi helicopter accident, or those that attribute the murder of his son to Khamenei himself. successor to make way for his son Mojtaba. According to Marjasov, theories about American involvement will also soon appear, taking into account that the Bell 212 helicopter was manufactured in the USA, but Sažin considers them insubstantial: “certainly the maintenance of the vehicle was problematic due to American sanctions”, but there was no need. of conspiracies.
Iran’s allies, such as the Palestinians of Hezbollah, “will continue to bother Israel,” says Marjasov, with attacks in the border regions, but without going beyond what has happened so far. Even Sažin agrees that “everything will remain in place, with tensions against Israel, trade relations with Russia and anti-American rhetoric.” Suponina believes, however, that the worsening of the overall situation in the Middle East is inevitable, not with explosions of violence in the short term, but within some time Raisi’s death will “play its role” in the destabilization of the entire region. .
Photo: Kremlin.ru/Wikimedia
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