Russia recovers Urozhaine and Robotyne, the jewels of Ukraine’s counteroffensive last summer

Having crossed this first line suggested that Ukraine could get closer to the key cities of Tokmak and Krasna Polyana. However, the troops then led by Valeri Zaluzhnyi pThey referred to settling in that conquered territory and not going further south. They lacked the means to do so and it would have been suicide to commit to heroics, as was suggested from the Pentagon.

The Ukrainian army has held out in its positions and defended both cities from Russian attacks for nine months. In recent days, the situation could have changed.

[Zelenski visita Járkov y reconoce que la situación es “extremadamente difícil” ante el avance ruso]

In the midst of the insistent Russian offensive, which goes from the north of Kharkiv to the south of Zaporizhia, passing through Kupiansk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar or Ocheretyne, the pro-Russian Telegram groups have claimed throughout this week the conquest of both towns.

Although independent media such as the Institute for the Study of War cannot verify said occupation and the Ukrainian high command insists that both towns remain in their hands, it is most likely that, if they have not fallen, they will do so in the next few hours. .

On the one hand, obviously, it is bad news for Ukraine, since it means giving up more territory. On the other hand, the fact that Russia is recovering in May 2024 positions that it lost in August 2023 speaks clearly of the enormous difficulties you are having to move forward.

Yes, the initiative is yours and that is always an advantage. It is also true that they have more men and more ammunition to send to the front, but the gains are still measured in a handful of square kilometers per month.

The Kharkiv maneuver

This slowness and the enormous price in human lives that Russia is having to pay for each kilometer conquered is what makes many experts doubt the viability of taking Kharkov, as the Kremlin allegedly intends this summer.

The raids from the Belgorod region would have meant an advance of about eight kilometers into Ukrainian territory. The US doctrine that Ukraine cannot defend itself if said defense involves attacking Russian soil has had a lot to do with this.

[La realidad de la ofensiva que la propaganda rusa intenta vender al mundo: 15 kilómetros en un año]

Russia continually bombards northern Kharkiv from its side of the border, but Ukraine can’t bomb back. Hence the insistence of Volodymyr Zelensky, visiting the area this Thursday after canceling his trip to Spain and Portugal, on the need to have more Patriot anti-aircraft systems. That would solve the problem immediately. For now, the Russians have managed to advance where the Ukrainians have retreated, precisely because of the impossibility of protecting themselves from medium-range fire.

By his usual standards, Gerasimov has sent relatively few men, which invites us to think more about a diversionary maneuver to force General Syrskyi to divert human and material resources to the area than about a serious attempt to reach the capital. from the Russian-speaking east.

Hostilities are currently focused on the town of Vovchansk, where the Russians are beginning to encounter resistance worthy of the name. It is estimated that Ukrainian troops have retreated to safe positions around ten to fifteen kilometers from the border.

The dream of Novorossiya

Most likely, Russia simply intends to create a safe zone from which to attempt an attack on Kharkiv at some point, but that time does not have to come this summer. Since it became clear that the war was not going to last three days, Putin has had to settle for a long-term strategy.

Your asset is wait and wait. He has no problem sending as many men as necessary to die in order to exhaust the Ukrainian defenses. He would also have no problem moving Russia into a war economy if conditions demanded it.

Now, in the Kremlin they think that it will not be necessary. They understand that the West will get tired of Ukraine and stop supporting the Zelensky regime. Be it from November 2024 with a possible victory for Trump in the US elections, or more in the medium term with his increasing influence in the Republican Party. Putin’s strategy is to resist… and, in the meantime, occupy territories that he will never agree to return, unless forced to do so by force.

[Evacuaciones al límite y combates urbanos: las tropas rusas han entrado en Vovchansk]

The great objective in February 2022 was to depose the kyiv regime and create a new Russian province that corresponded to the nationalist dream of the New Russiaa territory that went from Kharkiv to Odessa and covered practically the entire left bank of the Dnieper River.

Nothing suggests that this objective has changed. If along the way he manages to find a charismatic leader who erodes Zelensky’s credibility and replaces him at the head of the government, great. If Ukraine’s allies force it into a peace that is disadvantageous to its interests, even better.

The resistance at Chasiv Yar

If none of that happens, the military resource will remain and Putin does not seem to care how much effort it requires or how much time it consumes. Currently, in addition to the battles on the Zaporizhia and Kharkiv fronts, there are a couple of points in Donetsk that could be key to Ukraine’s resistance in Donbas. These are the aforementioned cities of Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne, along with Bakhmut and Avdiivka respectively.

The problems of rotation of battalions and ammunition, resulting from the blockage of aid destined by the United States to Ukraine, caused the Russians to make important advances in both areas in April, threatening the stability of the front.

However, since then almost a month has passed and nothing or almost nothing has happened: Chasiv Yar resists and Russia cannot get past Ivanivske en their attempt to surround the city. Without entering Chasiv Yar it will not be possible to attack Kostiantynivka from the north and cut off the supply with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the two key cities in the defense of Donbas for Ukraine.

Nor have the rapid advances northwest of Ocheretyne continued once the defensive positions were stabilized. The objective here was to cut H20 and also attack Kostiantynivka but from the south. Russia is trying everything because it knows that American aid will arrive soon to the front line and the window of opportunity is closing, but the truth is that it does not manage to completely break the Ukrainian resistance.

It is said that, in the summer, with a new mobilization, the mother of all offensives will arrive. By then, Ukraine will have improved its defensive fortifications and will have more material. Advances will, consequently, be more expensive. It is difficult to think that Russia can successfully attack in so many directions at the same time, taking into account that its elite forces have already been fighting for two and a half years. With cannon fodder you can go as far as you can, but it is very difficult to go further.