The attack against the pro-Russian Fico convulses Eastern Europe in the midst of Putin’s advance in Ukraine

The Russian president’s response has been long awaited in a context of enormous tension: Fico is one of its greatest allies in Eastern Europetogether with the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Nobody doubts that the Kremlin is behind its anti-NATO and anti-Ukraine discourse.

At least, the speed with which the Slovak government, through its Minister of the Interior, has clarified that the attack has a internal political motivationhas so far avoided any temptation to blame external agents for the shooting.

[Asesinatos, corrupción y mafia: la turbulenta vida de Robert Fico, el ‘Trump eslovaco’ afín a Putin]

As with the Moscow massacre last March, when the Russian government launched itself into blaming Ukraine before all the evidence pointed to ISIS-K as the real culprit, it was feared that both Bratislava and the Kremlin would blame the West. of being behind the assassination attempt.

The truth is that this has not been the case and the quick condemnation of all countries, both NATO as of the European Union. From US President Joe Biden to Volodymyr Zelensky himself, whom Fico had previously described as a Nazi and fascist, blaming him for the Russian intervention in Ukraine, they immediately came out to condemn the barbarity.

[El día que Fico alarmó a la UE: de ser el gran defensor de Ucrania a retirarle toda su ayuda en Bruselas]

Although Fico has shown himself several times as a populist contrary to everything the West defends, Slovakia is still a member of the main Atlanticist organizations and no one wanted to leave the slightest doubt.

Moment of the assassination attempt against the Prime Minister of Slovakia.

The example of Georgia

Even less so at a time of special turmoil both on the Ukrainian front and on the Russian diplomatic agenda itself. The songs of thousands of people still resonate Georgians it’s been weeks protesting against the foreign agent lawsuspiciously similar to the one applied by Russia to supposedly avoid Western interference and which, in practice, limits the freedom of expression of its media.

For days and days, Tbilisi has seen clashes at the gates of Parliament between police and pro-European and anti-Russian protesters. All in vain. The law was finally approved after last year’s frustrated attempt.

The Europeanism of certain Georgian leaders is viewed with great suspicion from Moscow and the agitation in the streets of Tbilisi has reached remember the Euromaidan protests 2014 in kyiv, after which the pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych had to abandon the presidency of Ukraine and Putin annexed Crimea by force, initiating a war in Donbas that still continues.

Georgia and Russia have fought several military disputes in recent years, highlighting the lightning invasion of 2008, which led to the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, pro-Russian territories within the neighboring state itself.

The idea that a similar unrest could move to Slovakia, one of the few countries friendly to Russia within the former zone of influence of the former Soviet Union, was very worrying in the Kremlin.

[Fico, el ‘otro Orbán’ prorruso y antioccidental que cortó la ayuda militar de Eslovaquia a Ucrania]

As a good populist, Fico, who already led the country after its separation from the Czech Republic, is not only anti-establishment, but he boasts about it ostentatiously. His most recent fight has been with the WHO over the issue of vaccines. Any international establishment is uncomfortable for the current Slovak government, which makes it a kind of political submarine within NATO and the European Union, to the delight of Moscow.

It is impossible to know if this attack will bring a period of reflection or if, on the contrary, it will be the beginning of an escalation of violence. The same ones who ask for calm are the ones who blame political and media rivals. Fico’s government is not even seven months old and its members have been quick to blame the local press and the opposition for what happened. “You will be happy,” Andrej Danko, vice-president of the National Council, exclaimed to journalists. Russia is not going to leave its ally alone at this time and watch carefully from a distance.

The Kharkiv Offensive

This crisis culminates in some of the most eventful days in the Kremlin, with the replacement in the Ministry of Defense of Putin’s faithful squireSergei Shoigu, by the economic advisor Andréi Beloúsov, which implies clear discontent with Shoigu’s military management in Ukraine… and the beginning of a new stage in which the economy will serve the needs of the army.

He attack in the north of Kharkiv It has served to stir up propaganda, but it has translated into very few strategic gains: just a few towns that the Ukrainians themselves have considered lost from the beginning.

We are talking about an offensive with few troops and few means aimed rather at diverting Ukrainian resources from Donbas, where both countries are really playing for their chestnuts. It is difficult to see a real threat to the city of Kharkiv, even though pro-Russian social networks have been announcing a devastating attack for this summer for some time.

In April, with estimated casualties of around 25,000 dead and wounded, Russia barely managed to occupy 85 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Kharkiv is a city of one million inhabitants protected with an iron mantle.

Things haven’t been any better in May, and sooner or later American aid will reach the front lines. Although President Zelensky canceled his visit to Spain and Portugal to address the war situation, and although it is undeniable that Ukraine has been on the defensive for too many months, with the risk that this entails, the truth is that Chasiv Yar resists Russian attempts to envelop the town neighboring Bakhmut and that progress from Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdivka, has slowed.

Putin has so far shown infinite patience and his plans continue to go through install doubt in the West and force peace negotiations that are favorable to him and that he can break off in another five or ten years. To that end, politicians like Trump, Orbán or Fico himself are essential. Another thing is that they are enough to break the Western will. So far, that has not been the case, but, as I said, the Kremlin is in no hurry.