Russian nuclear diplomacy

Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has managed to overcome most of the strict sanctions imposed by Western economies, largely thanks to its ability to maintain economic relations with emerging powers in the field of energy, particularly oil, gas and nuclear energy. The atomic sector is led by the global presence of Rosatom, the Russian company that runs a conglomerate of more than 300 companies responsible for the manufacture and sale of nuclear technologies for civil and military use.

In recent years, Russia has emerged as a partner in supplying nuclear technologies to countries in the Global South, gradually expanding its presence in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. This strategy depends on Moscow’s ability to find new diplomatic and trade partners, negotiating with these countries without imposing severe non-proliferation conditions (such as the United States’ 123 Agreements) and selling a wide range of technologies related to nuclear energy, being the only global supplier of all the elements necessary to establish a nuclear program.

For countries in the Global South, Russia has become a potential supplier of these nuclear energy-related technologies. Therefore, Moscow uses Rosatom as a diplomatic tool to gather support within the United Nations in order to avoid new sanctions – what the literature calls “international clientelism” – in which Russia establishes diplomatic ties and partnerships with countries to receive support for their positions during global governance negotiations.

Rosatom has won numerous tenders for the sale of reactors, positioning itself as a leader in terms of the number of Projects of nuclear reactor construction carried out simultaneously, with 3 units in Russia and 33 abroad in various phases of execution. Likewise, it controls approximately 20% of the world market for conversion and enrichment-related materials, something that made it a partner important scientific groups from the US and European countries regardless of the war between Russia and Ukraine – for example, participating in the ongoing construction of the Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) – a state-of-the-art international accelerator facility in Germany.

Likewise, since 2023 Rosatom is the exclusive supplier of products related to enriched uranium for Brazilian nuclear facilities. This historic agreement is the first long-term partnership with Brasilia, replacing previous imports from Canada and European consortia. These factors occur precisely at a time when Rosatom is trying to expand its relations with the BRICS countries to increase its participation in the sale of nuclear subsidies for the production of radioisotopes in these nations and obtain financing of the New BRICS Development Bank.

Rosatom’s growing presence in the Global South

Currently, Rosatom controls approximately 70% of the world export market for the construction of nuclear power plants. Its expansion in the Global South occurs in a context in which emerging powers are trying to boost their energy production through nuclear means.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region

On April 27, 2023, Turkish President Erdoğan expressed his gratitude to Putin for the inauguration of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, Turkey’s first nuclear reactor. It will begin operation in 2025 with four VVER 1200 pressurized water reactors and will be responsible for around 10% of the total national electricity production. Located in the southern Turkish province of Mersin, the nuclear power plant was built by Rosatom, whose subsidiaries financed 93% of the project. This project has created tensions with the Western bloc, as NATO member Turkey sought Russian technology to advance its civil nuclear program, despite sanctions imposed due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Likewise, Rosatom has provided Egypt four VVER reactors for the construction of its first nuclear power plant – the second on the African continent – ​​in a contract worth about 30 billion US dollars. The Russian government has also agreed to finance 85% of the cost.

In it north of Africa, a region facing rapid population growth and a growing need for sustainable energy sources, Russia has initiated strategic dialogues to strengthen nuclear cooperation. Countries such as Morocco, Libya (whose nuclear reactor – temporarily closed – was produced by the Soviet Union) and Tunisia, which are trying to diversify their energy portfolios away from fossil fuels, have become centers of these conversations.

Rosatom has been at the forefront of these dialogues, leveraging memorandums of understanding (MoUs) and trade negotiations to explore potential nuclear projects and collaborations. While his goal is to meet the region’s energy demands, these commitments also fit Russia’s broader geopolitical and economic interests in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Sub-Saharan Africa

In a similar vein, different countries in sub-Saharan Africa, such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and Ethiopia, have diplomatic and trade agreements related to nuclear energy with Russia. Rosatom has been actively involved in the region, offering scholarship opportunities local students to complete engineering studies in Russia. In this sense, Russia seeks a diplomatic rapprochement with countries like Nigeria, based on cooperation in uranium exploration and the establishment of a nuclear power plant financed by Russian lines of credit.

Moscow has pursued preferential access to the continent’s uranium and rare earth mines, as seen in agreements with Tanzania and Namibia. South Africa, a key member of the BRICS, is another notable case. The ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), has maintained close relations with the Kremlin since the Cold War, as the country needs to generate more electricity to cope with recurring blackouts. In 2023, Pretoria decided to boost nuclear energy production, with Rosatom as the main candidate. However, plans for the creation of new nuclear power plants face a serious resistancedue to corruption allegations surrounding a previous deal.

Collectively, sub-Saharan countries have moved closer to Russia, serving as both diplomatic support and a market for Russian products. While financing the growth of these nations by supplying nuclear technology, Russia receives diplomatic support in return, especially in the United Nations General Assembly. For example, South Africa It has supported Russia in UN votes, voting against several resolutions condemning Moscow and becoming involved in controversies related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

South Asia

Russia’s nuclear diplomacy has also extended to the Asian continent, especially South Asia. In the case of India, the construction of units 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant rekindles an old partnership dating back to agreements with the Soviet Union. Likewise, the Russian company operates in Bangladesh, with preparations underway for the construction of the Rooppur nuclear power plant, the country’s first nuclear energy facility. Also in Sri Lanka, Russia is a potential candidate to build nuclear reactors as part of a recently released long-term project to boost local energy production in the country. Therefore, in South Asia, Russia aims to take advantage of historical ties by offering technological and energy opportunities in the nuclear field to maintain commercial ties. Indeed, despite Western pressures, South Asia maintains significant trade with Moscow, thus mitigating the impact of sanctions on its economy.

Latin America

Finally, in Latin America, Russia is strategically pursuing the expansion of its partnerships and seeking greater access to the continent’s raw materials markets. In particular, in Bolivia, a $450 million contract with Rosatom will lead to the construction of a complex for the extraction and production of lithium carbonate, an essential material for the cooling and containment systems of nuclear reactors. At the same time, Russia has expanded nuclear collaboration with Brazil.

Once again, Russia clearly intends to strengthen its diplomatic ties with these countries through nuclear energy. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, known for his liberal policies, traveled to Moscow in 2022 to meet with Putin, signaling his intention to deepen diplomatic relations in the nuclear sector. Bolsonaro treated information discussed during the trip as confidential, but Brazilian press reported talks with Russian companies to promote the navy’s interests and seek help with the certification of fuel to be used in nuclear submarine reactors.

The challenges that await and how to address them

Russia has found in the nuclear market a means to strengthen ties with the countries of the Global South by providing them with high-tech elements. Through partnerships in the nuclear sector, Russia has not only strengthened its presence on the global energy landscape, but has also increased its geopolitical influence, especially in regions where emerging economies seek technological advances and energy solutions.

Russia’s strategic use of nuclear alliances with countries in the Global South not only increases its global influence, but also raises challenges related to technology transfer and economic dependence. Indeed, these partnerships often rely heavily on Russian technology and funding, raising concerns about the autonomy and economic vulnerability of recipient countries.

To mitigate the risk of Russia leveraging nuclear partnerships to increase its influence in the Global South, Western partners could offer innovative alternative solutions that conform to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) guidelines, such as the 2009 agreement of USA with United Arab Emirates. By encouraging technology transfer and local capacity-building based on existing standards, Western aid could enable recipient countries to develop their nuclear capabilities, while reducing dependence on a single supplier. For their part, by adhering to IAEA standards and developing diversified partnerships, countries in the Global South could better navigate challenges and foster long-term sustainable nuclear development.

Article translated from English from the website of the Affari International Institute (IAI).

Activity subsidized by the Ministry of Foreign and Global Affairs.