He "big election year" will lead to increases in public spending, considers the IMF

“History suggests and empirical data confirms that States spend more and tax less in election years. The study we carried out” on years prior to elections “shows that public deficits are higher than expected, on average 0.4% of the GDP, in electoral years,” Gaspar explained.

The difference this year is that the elections occur after several major crises, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, which led States to finance entire sections of their economy.

But, amid rising interest rates to fight inflation, governments must find fiscal space to function while responding to their maturities, with debt costs rising.

For this reason, the IMF recommends that governments prevent public finance deficits from increasing, something that may occur with greater probability in an election year, Gaspar said.