The arguments for the Colombian peso to be revalued at 1.22%

During 2024 the dollar in Colombia has recorded a drop of $57.82,With which the peso has been revalued by 1.22% and the Representative Market Rate (official dollar) today is $3,764.23. To explain this situation there are several arguments that, according to analysts, have a local economic and particularly international component, such as example the global weakness of the dollar.

The delay in the beginning of the reduction of interest rates in the United States by the central bank of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the high prices of oil and gold (which among other things benefit Colombia), just to mention Two key commodities, as well as a lower dynamic in the country that is expressed in lower imports that demand less foreign currency, are part of the cocktail of causes.

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And to that we must also add the good performance in the income of remittances, which in 2023 exceeded the US$10 billion. Diego Gómez Gutiérrez, external context and exchange market analyst at Corficolombiana, says that driven by oil prices at peaks several months ago, this has had an important appreciation effect on the export coins of that mineral.

For Gómez, since last year “we have seen a lesser influence of internal political issues on the price of the dollar and instead external factors and seasonal flows to the economy are predominating.” However, she warns that there are risks that the exchange rate will depreciate once the fiscal costs of the health system and other events that arise become evident. affect public finances.

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For his part, Germán Cristancho, manager of economic research and strategy at Davivienda Corredores, points out that the economy is slowing down, the pace of spending is weak due to high interest rates and that makes the purchase of dollars for imports are at low levels.

He recalled that in 2022 US$7,000 million in goods and services were imported and last January it was US$4,900 million and this slowdown makes the demand for dollars fall.

He considers that the flows of remittances and tourism, as well as the public takeover bid (OPA) of Nutresa, put the rate down, but he warned that at some point the uncertainty in the country will make it rise. He said that the dollar has already fallen 26% compared to the maximum of 2022 and so far in 2024 All currencies have lost 3% against the dollar but the peso has strengthened 2.5%.

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