Heat waves will continue until 2060 regardless of whether we manage to mitigate climate change

The extreme heat in Western Europe is causing devastating forest fires in France and Spain and an unprecedented drought in Italy and Portugal, while the United Kingdom has registered this past Tuesday the highest temperature in its history, with just over 40 degrees Celsius, measured at London’s Heathrow airport.

However, this is not an exception. Heat waves like the one Europe is currently experiencing and other negative trends in the climate will become more frequent and will continue at least “until 2060”, according to the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

This pattern is related to the observed warming of the planet that can be attributed to human activity, raising great concern for the future of the planet.

“Heat waves are becoming more common because of climate change,” said Petteri Taalas, who, using a sports analogy, explained that we have doped the atmosphere by injecting more greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, so warming and other trends “will continue through at least 2060, regardless of whether or not we are successful in mitigating climate change.”

“In the future these types of heat waves will be normal and we will see even stronger extremes. We have released so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that the negative trend will continue in the coming decades and for the moment we have not been able to reduce our global emissions”, stressed the expert at a press conference to analyze the current heat wave in Europe, held jointly with the World Health Organization (WHO).

In that regard, Taalas elaborated: “We have already lost the game when it comes to glacial melting. We expect glacial melting to continue for the next few hundred years or even thousands of years… sea ​​will continue for the same period.

Heat waves greatly increase the risk of forest fires breaking out. (Photo: Jason Willette, National Park Service)

health effects

Taalas recalled that in 2003 a heat wave left 75,000 dead in Europe and stressed that, although there are now better means of adaptation, the Organization foresees an increase in deaths among the elderly and people with previous conditions.

Dr. María Neira, from the World Health Organization, also spoke at the press conference about how it affects human beings medically, pointing out that heat waves pose a challenge because when the temperature reaches 41 degrees it is something exceptional and the body has to fight to keep the internal temperature stable.

This fight in turn generates fatigue, heat stroke, hypertension, hyperthermia and a change in behavior, aggravated by the lack of night rest, which even affects mental health.

Air pollution

Heat waves also act as a kind of atmospheric cover, trapping pollutants and degrading air quality, with negative consequences for health, especially for vulnerable people such as the elderly.

“Climate change is affecting our health in many ways, not only through heat waves, which have direct consequences,” but also in other areas of essential health care, such as increased levels of disease, added Dr. Neira, Director of Public and Environmental Health at the WHO.

He explained that reliable access to food and water is at stake, as agricultural production levels “are at risk”, and that “there will surely be water shortages”.

In addition, he said that 99% of the world’s population breathes air that does not meet the health standards established by the UN, which has a huge impact on chronic respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.

Effects on agriculture and tourism

The director general of the World Meteorological Organization also warned of the effects of these extreme weather events on agriculture, as they wither crops before harvest.

“We expect to see big impacts on agriculture. During previous heat waves in Europe, we lost a lot of crops. And in the current situation – we already have the global food crisis because of the war in Ukraine – this heat wave is going to to have a greater negative impact on agricultural activities,” warned Taalas.

Heat waves will also have an impact on tourism in southern Europe since, as the UN official indicates, it is not very pleasant to visit tourist sites in countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal at temperatures around the 40 degrees.

Robert Stefansky, head of WMO Applied Climate Services, said that the peak of the current heat wave is expected to have been reached last Tuesday in the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland, although it is expected to continue for a few days. more days.

Stefansky recalled that the temperature record in Europe, recorded on the Italian island of Sicily last year, when 48.8 degrees Celsius were reached, has not yet been broken, but indicated that yesterday the Portuguese meteorological service observed a temperature of 47 degrees.

“Our concern is that these records are coming closer and closer in time,” Stefansky added.

The key is ambition

For Dr. Neira, “the best solution will be, once again, to be very ambitious when dealing with the causes of this global warming.”

“We have been warning for a long time that climate change is greatly affecting human health,” which will also have repercussions in the fight to reach net carbon emissions, and in the crucial transition towards clean and renewable energy sources, he stressed.

Finally, he said that it is feared that in the coming weeks there will be more deaths among the elderly and people with pre-existing health problems, due to the heat wave that is taking place, with the consequent challenges for health systems in dealing with the growing demand. (Font: UN News)