X-ray of the Alvise voter: what the results say about support for the ultra agitator

800,000 people cast their ballots for ultra agitator Luis ‘Alvise’ Pérez in the 9J European elections in Spain. The group of voters ‘The Party is Over’, which has raised an anti-immigration, anti-feminist discourse and against an alleged political and media “mafia”, emerges with three seats and almost 5% of the votes. But what is the Alvise voter like? Where has this 9J obtained the best results?

The analysis of the vote in more than 8,000 municipalities and districts of large cities grouped according to income levels, age or unemployment rate draws a map of the areas where Alvise’s speech has had the most impact.

The data indicates that the vote for ‘The party is over’ is transversal in terms of economic level, so it occurs in rich and poor areas. But it achieves better results in younger municipalities (lower average age), in intermediate cities (outside large cities) and where higher levels of unemployment are recorded, as shown in the following graph.

Precisely, the provinces where Alvise’s candidacy achieves its best results are located along the entire southern coast of the Peninsula and in the Canary Islands, where unemployment levels skyrocket. His best results are in Málaga, Las Palmas, Murcia, Guadalajara, Cádiz and Seville, where he surpassed 6% of the votes in the European elections on Sunday.

Although Alvise’s voters live more in areas with high unemployment, surveys do not indicate that the unemployed are their main source of votes. The data from the last pre-electoral CIS published before the European elections indicated that the groups that most sympathized with the ultra agitator’s candidacy were the military and police forces (14.6%), students (9.8%) and workers or artisans (8.5%).

The CIS survey also detected greater support for the ‘Se Acabó la Fiesta’ candidacy among men, mainly among young people and adults up to 44 years of age, right-wing voters and Vox voters in the 2023 general elections.

The disinformer Alvise Pérez organized a campaign full of hoaxes against the migrant population, promising to use the seat to fight corruption without taking specific measures and warning of possible electoral fraud in the counting of the votes.

The competition with Vox at the message level is clear. Pérez deploys a speech very similar to that of Santiago Abascal’s party, with which he showed sympathy and ideological affinity years ago, but which in recent times he has accused of being soft in many of its positions and of being part of the “partitocracy.” that his group seeks to destroy. The arrival of the elections triggered tensions between the two, with the Sevillian denouncing that Vox uses anonymous accounts on the social network X to defame him.

The data by province also shows that there is a clear correlation between the points that Vox loses with respect to the 2023 general elections and the vote for Alvise Pérez’s candidacy, as shown in the following graph. In Murcia, Abascal’s people went from 21.8% of the votes to 15.9%: six points less in a year. In the same community, ‘The party is over’ achieved 6.6% of the ballots.

Does this mean that Alvise’s group has the same voters as Vox? Not quite. They are similar but with some differences. For example, in the level of income.

In these European elections, income was once again key in the vote. The PP swept among the richest 1% in Spain: specifically, it obtained 51% of the ballots. Income inequality is transformed into voting distance in the poorest 1%, where the PSOE prevails with more than 45% of the votes, according to the analysis of the electoral results of the 9J street by street crossed by income level of the residents .

The vote for Alvise understands much less about rich and poor areas. Although it achieves its best result among the richest 1% in Spain, at all income levels it achieves between 4% and 5%, as shown in the following graph.

By income level, Alvise’s vote is similar to that of Vox but much more transversal. Those of Abascal have been in several elections achieving better results among the poorest neighborhoods and municipalities in the south of Spain, worse among the upper averages at the national level (cities of Catalonia, Galicia or Euskadi) and it is rising again among the richest 10%.

Although until the first post-election polls are published it is difficult to know with certainty who the voters were, the data does allow us to know a first outline of its main fishing grounds: areas of southern Spain, with high levels of unemployment, with a large young population. , in intermediate cities or the periphery of large capitals.

How many votes has Alvise’s party gotten in each neighborhood in Spain? On this map you can explore the results of the European Parliament elections this 9J street by street. These are the most detailed results available for an election. You can locate your street or neighborhood through the search engine ?