Although businesses will seek to offer the best discounts to increase their sales, which have been reduced since the pandemic, there are other factors that make it difficult to achieve this benefit, including the constant rise in credit prices and fears that the global economy will enter a recession. in the following months.
For Ricardo Aguilar, chief economist at Invex, Mexico’s economic scenario does not point to a recession in 2023, but the growth estimate -1.5%- could be at risk if the US central bank fails to lower interest rates.
Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of Analysis at Monex, ruled out that there is a large downward impact on inflation due to the end of energy subsidies in the northern states of the country in November.
“The impact will be limited or almost as far as annual inflation is concerned. The only way that could happen would be if discounts were given that are greater than those that have traditionally been given in past years, with this we could see a push for inflation to decrease, ”he adds.
Both economists recognize that producers face high prices, which would not be profitable for them to lower prices significantly.
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) estimates that in the fourth quarter of the year inflation will be at levels close to 8.1% from a previous estimate of 7.5%, that is, it will exceed the 3% target.
It is expected that with El Buen Fin 2022 sales of up to 290,000 million pesos will be achieved, a goal that may be possible considering that the Qatar World Cup begins on November 20 and ends on December 18.
So that consumers can make a comparison of promotions and discounts, the government and the private initiative launched an app. In addition, Profeco promised to carry out an operation to verify that businesses do not inflate the prices of the 450 best-selling products.