why Kishida checks are not enough

For the thirteenth consecutive year, Japan is experiencing demographic decline. The childcare subsidies launched by the government almost a year ago do not appear to have been enough to push parents to be more open to having children. Demographer Minagawa: “Conflict in the management of work and family and social pressure on motherhood also weigh. Secularization is also a factor: according to research by the Pew Research Center, Japanese who pray are more likely to have children .

Tokyo (/Agencies) – According to the latest data published last week, as of October 1 of last year, Japan's population decreased by 595,000 more people, that is, 0.48%, in year-on-year terms, to stand at 124,352,000 inhabitants. This is the thirteenth consecutive year of decline in the country's population, due to the growing aging of the population, the sharp decline in births and the reduction in household size. According to estimates released by Japan's National Population Institute, single-person households are expected to account for 44.3% of the 52.61 million Japanese households in 2050, with almost half of them made up of people aged 65 years or more.

It is not surprising that the decline in the birth rate in Japan has long been a focus of attention for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida: already in June 2023, Kishida announced a series of government measures, the cost of which is estimated at around $22 billion, including a promise to double spending on child care by the early 2030s and raise the income limit for child benefits. The idea is that these measures will encourage Japanese couples to have more children.

Although they may seem generous, Kishida's natalist policies do not seem capable of addressing the root causes that deter Japanese people from marrying and having children: the rising cost of living, stagnant wages and changes in lifestyle. promoted by secularization and consumerism in the country.

The rise in the cost of basic products has triggered inflation in Japan, as in other parts of the world, and this has also affected the costs of childcare and education: the Nikkei news agency estimated a few months ago that “the costs The total costs of a child receiving a private education for 15 years of schooling, including tuition fees and remedial course fees, have reached a new record in Japan of 18.4 million yen (about 111,000 euros). The gross annual costs of caring for two children in Japan already accounted for almost half the income of the average couple with a full-time job in 2021.

Kishida presented some measures to address inflation, such as extending subsidies for gasoline and utilities until spring 2024 and the possibility of reducing income tax. But, critics say, it merely addresses the symptoms of the problem, rather than solving Japan's long-standing problem of wage stagnation: according to the 2022 wage census, the average monthly wage for men has only risen 6% since 1995. .

In a recent article published in Foreign Policy magazine, Professor Yuka Minagawa, a social demographer at Sophia University in Tokyo, assessed reactions to childcare support on several blogs and online discussion forums where Japanese mothers They talked about their experiences. So far,” she says, “I have not found a single post that points out the amount of childcare aid as a source of difficulties. Instead, recurring themes include the lack of shared responsibility between men and women in childcare and household chores, pressure and conflict in managing work and family, and stress due to high standards of work. society about motherhood. “It is difficult to imagine,” she concludes, “that a monthly child allowance of 15,000 yen (about 90 euros) could alter the reproductive decisions of future parents.”

But it is above all the change in lifestyles, with more women working instead of getting married and raising children at home, that contributes to the decline in birth rates when it is not accompanied by adequate social policies.

According to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center between June 2 and September 17, 2023 and published on April 3, less than 30% of residents in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam say that women have a social obligation to have children. Japan ranks first in the survey, with 79% of respondents stating that women are free to choose their preferences on this issue. The same survey highlights the role of religion and prayer in respondents' views on having children. Adults in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan who pray daily are “somewhat more likely than those who pray less frequently to say that having children is one of a woman's duties.”

In light of these trends, the Kishida government's natalist policies, however well-intentioned, are far from an effective way to solve a deeply rooted problem in today's Japanese society.