The return of President Donald Trump to the White House raises expectations about relations with Nicaragua, one of the countries accused by Washington of doing business with immigrants who arrive in Managua on charter flights to continue their transit to the United States.
Analysts consulted by the Voice of America They share different opinions on the matter. On the one hand, they consider that there could be tensions between both countries due to the immigration issue, but also due to the political crisis that Nicaragua is experiencing, which led the US government to declare Managua as an “unusual threat” for US foreign policy from 2018 to date.
Tiziano Breda, an analyst at Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), an organization that tracks and documents incidents of political violence, including armed conflicts, said that the immigration issue “will be central” in the Trump administration, and that it remains to be seen if Nicaragua will make some type of concession to stop irregular migration to the northern country.
“The containment of the migratory flow will be interesting, and it will be necessary to see to what extent the Ortega administration will be willing to make concessions on an issue that has been a measure for Nicaragua to do favors for its allies in the region, particularly Cuba, and, on the other hand, to generate economic income,” Breda told the Voice of America.
Since 2018, when Nicaragua began to face a sociopolitical crisis, The government of Daniel Ortega has been accused of making the arrival of migrants to Managua by air more flexible in charter flights. In addition, Nicaragua has eliminated the visa requirement for a series of countries with a high migratory flow, such as Cuba.
Journalistic investigations indicate that migration has left millionaire profits for the Ortega government due to a fee that is imposed on migrants when they arrive in the country.
The Ortega government has not commented on these accusations and at the time of publication has not responded to a request for comment from the VOA.
Elvira Cuadras, sociologist and director of the Center for Transdisciplinary Studies of Central America (CETCAM), comments that there is “uncertainty” about the relations that could be established between both countries.
According to Cuadras, the incoming administration of President Donald Trump will keep Nicaragua in the category of “unusual threat to the security of the United States” because it “promotes the trafficking of migrants from Africa and Asia, who use Managua as a springboard to reach to the United States,” in addition to its approach to “regimes such as North Korea, Iran and the Taliban.”
“Nicaragua has become a threat to the United States for several reasons, and the issue of migrant trafficking is a critical element of national security. In that sense, Nicaragua has positioned itself in a place that draws the attention of that country,” Cuadras mentioned.
Limbo for Nicaraguan migrants
Regarding the human rights crisis that Nicaragua is experiencing and that has led thousands of people to emigrate to other countries, including the United States, analysts have different positions.
Elvira Cuadras points out that the Trump administration could cancel the humanitarian parole, which would represent a risk for Nicaraguans who chose to migrate to the United States under that initiative.
This is a program approved during President Joe Biden’s administration, originally designed for Venezuelan migrants. Later, in January 2023, it was extended to citizens of Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti as a “safe and legal” way to reach the United States. These four nationalities were among the most represented in the record numbers of arrivals at the southwest border with Mexico at that time.
“This is really going to generate tensions within the United States and with Nicaragua,” continued the sociologist, who ruled out the possibility of “agreements” between both countries for Managua to receive expelled migrants.
“The Ortega regime has insisted on seeking the expulsion of Nicaraguans of the national territory instead of receiving them, so there is a lot of uncertainty and very strong risks,” he expressed.
However, Tiziano Breda mentions that the deportations of Nicaraguans could play a secondary role in Trump’s agenda.
“The deportations of Nicaraguans could be of interest, although this will play a secondary role because the migratory pressure (for Managua) is less compared to Haiti or Venezuela. The Trump administration will prioritize the countries with the greatest migratory flow,” Breda said.
In the last four years, at least 400,000 Nicaraguans crossed irregularly into the United States, according to data provided by Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
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