The Venezuelan government is “strengthened” and the opposition “weakened” in the face of a possible dialogue process, said experts consulted, one day after an exchange of prisoners with the United States was finalized that led to the release of seven US citizens “unjustly” imprisoned in Venezuela and two nephews of the wife of President Nicolás Maduro, detained in the US for drug trafficking crimes.
The measure has made the families happy and the Venezuelan opposition has welcomed their return to their homes, however some They have distanced themselves from the “sovereign” decision of the United States to agree with Maduro.
José Vicente Carrasquero, a political scientist and consultant on Public Opinion and Electoral Campaigns in Latin America based at Keiser University in Florida, told the voice of america that considers that it is a situation that generates controversy because, on the one hand, there is the happiness of the family sectors and on the other there is a “delicate” framework, where it is evident that “one State can subject another ” by way of “improper behavior”.
“For justice and the way of doing justice, this is bad news” and, without specifying his name, he suggests that later it could be the case that the Colombian businessman, Alex Saab, whom he Maduro’s government recognizes as a diplomat and is prosecuted in the US for conspiracy to launder money.
In Carrasquero’s opinion, “the verticality of justice is lost by negotiating with governments that do not respect the rule of law and human rights.”
“At first it seems to me that the Maduro government comes out of this strengthened because it imposed its law. Basically what they are saying is that it doesn’t matter if you commit outrages, in the end you can get away with it”, says the political strategy expert.
A White House official told reporters Saturday after the releases that Saab’s case is in the hands of the US justice system. Asked if Saab’s release could also be expected, he said: “He is on trial, so he would be referred [la pregunta] to the Department of Justice.”
What could happen next?
The political scientist and journalist with studies at the American University in Washington, José De Bastos, considers that Saturday’s action shows that US policy towards Venezuela “is changing” and estimates that, from now on, new ways of “dealing” could be seen. with the Venezuelan government.
“What we will see, I suppose, are more gestures in that sense. Obviously, if both sides continue to agree, this change of policy in relation to that of [el expresidente Donald] Trump has taken time, neither side wants to give much, “he says.
Although he points out that there has been no evidence of a massive lifting of sanctions by the US nor a significant change by the Maduro government, De Bastos believes that various conversations and meetings have taken place behind the agreement, some of which are public knowledge.
The political scientist considers that, within the framework of the new US policy, negotiations could continue from the point of view of energy.
Regarding the negotiations between the Venezuelan opposition and the Maduro government in Mexico, suspended in October 2021 after the extradition to the US of Alex Saab, De Bastos sees the possibility of some kind of “gesture” that will impact Venezuelan politics in the next days, weeks or months.
He also agrees that it is “impossible” to see in the exchange a strengthening of the opposition that is “weakened” and, from his point of view, compared to 2019, when Juan Guaidó was sworn in as interim president, the government of Maduro has grown stronger.
“I think the opposition is waiting a bit, it doesn’t have too many weapons to force the Maduro government to negotiate or improve the electoral conditions for 2024, for example, which would be a bit of a goal,” he explains.
exaggerated pragmatism
For the political analyst professor in Caracas at the Monteávila University, Víctor Maldonado, it is clear that the US policy is to protect the integrity of its citizens, especially after the publication of the report of the International Mission to Determine the Facts of Venezuela, which exposes that the Maduro government uses methods of “torture”.
“It is absolutely clear that for them it was a matter of urgency to protect their citizens from any circumstance that would violate them,” he said.
However, Maldonado considers that the exchange is a demonstration of the “moral bankruptcy” in which the relationship is raised, because in the light of the international community -says the expert- a direct negotiation is proposed “without arguing” the reasons why which the exchange takes place.
“It is a transaction whose silence is more disgraceful than what happened. The sign of the times indicates a decline in the foundations on which the US has always maintained its hegemony, which never left out the fact that they represented freedom, the fight for democracy and the privilege of human rights, all of which seems to be in a kind of parenthesis at the moment,” he says.
In Maldonado’s opinion, the Venezuelan opposition is a “hindrance” to the goal of liberating the country. He even considers that they behave as “scribes” of the interests of the Maduro government.
In addition, and despite the pronouncements from the White House that Biden’s policy towards Venezuela has not changed, he values that the decision of the US president translates into “fed up” and “indisposition” with the opposition interlocutors, the that he describes as “corrupt”, a situation that, he considers, could culminate in a “reputational fiasco”.
“After 25 years in which they have been starring in one failure after another, very little can be believed. This opposition is more morally bankrupt and irreversible. The regime has shown that it does not need to be the interlocutor of an opposition that is a role within its own ecosystem”, he underlines.
Maldonado points out that, in the midst of Russia’s challenge to the West, Venezuela lowers its profile and, given its geostrategic position and its oil reserves, becomes an actor “of convenience” to negotiate, which will be “conditional” on the circumstances of that conflict, especially given the arrival of winter and the degree of vulnerability in which the European Union finds itself from the point of view of energy supply.
“As long as this conflict occupies a large part of the concerns of the US government and Europe, Venezuela will be seen as a potential ally and everything else ends up being an argument that can be dispensed with, at least for a while,” he highlights.
For the economist and president of the Datanalisis pollster, Luis Vicente León, the negotiation that allowed the exchange of prisoners is “excellent news in terms of opportunities to consolidate more humanitarian, oil and political agreements in the coming months.”
“Considering that more than 70% of Venezuelans agree with the negotiations between the parties in conflict and that the issues favored by the people are humanitarian and oil, progress in this regard strengthens the relationship between the political sector and the population” , he wrote on Twitter.
Michael Penfold, an expert in public policy and strategic planning at the Wilson Center, stressed that since March there has been a direct channel between Caracas and Washington that “seems to be working.”
“What just happened is probably the start of a quid pro quo that it must continue with the humanitarian and energy agreements and most likely negotiations in Mexico City,” says Penfold.
He also valued that it is a process of “global and regional context that changed”, in which “nothing is isolated” and “it will take time”.
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