What can be expected from relations between Colombia and Venezuela after January 10?

Next January 10 will mark a key point in relations between Colombia and Venezuela, when Nicolás Maduro assumes his new presidential mandate after widely questioned elections.

Although the Colombian president, Gustavo Petro has confirmed that he will not recognize the legitimacy of the Venezuelan elections Last July, his decision to maintain diplomatic relations with Caracas could alter the future of bilateral dynamics and the position that his Venezuelan counterpart will adopt.

Colombian position

Peter recently rejected the July 28 elections, qualifying them as “not free” due to economic blockades and alleged internal intimidation.

In that sense, the former Foreign Minister of Colombia, Julio Londoño, pointed out in dialogue with the Voice of America that Petro’s objective is to “preserve” diplomatic relations due to the “need” for cooperation to address cross-border problems such as migration, trade and security.

“We have a very complicated situation on the border between the two countries, one of the most dangerous borders in the world, the border between Colombia and Venezuela, especially in the department of Norte de Santander. There are a series of things, we have a trade as well, not fundamental, but it is a trade that has effects, especially in some departments of Colombia,” said Londoño.

In his statements on his X account, Petro reaffirmed that the differences between governments “should not be transferred to the people,” highlighting the importance of a fluid dialogue between both nations.

However, the analysts consulted by the Voice of America point out that Bogotá will have to establish a more solid position beyond the need to maintain mutual respect and non-intervention.

It is “a rather inconsistent policy on their part, because it is not understood that this government that has been so critical of the government of Israel for its responsibility in the genocide in Gaza, this same government maintains such a soft position in relation to a regime such as that of Nicolás Maduro,” commented Juan Gómez, PhD. in Political Science from Washington University in Saint Louis and professor at the National University of Colombia.

Failed mediation

Colombia has played an active role as a mediator in the Venezuelan political crisis, together with Brazil and Mexico, to seek a consensual solution between Chavismo and the opposition.

However, efforts to achieve independent verification of the election results failed, leaving the Colombian president in an uncomfortable position of not recognizing Maduro’s victory, but also not taking it to the level of breaking diplomatic relations.

“It is undoubtedly part of President Gustavo Petro’s strategy to maintain a rapprochement with the government of Nicolás Maduro, despite the fact that this government has publicly aligned itself with those of Mexico and Brazil, which demand that the Venezuelan government publish the minutes. , minutes that, after being published, would give rise to scrutiny that would call into question the legitimacy of the regime,” Gómez noted.

Challenges after January 10

With a shared border of 2,219 kilometers and a history of cooperation and tensions, relations between Colombia and Venezuela could face an uncertain outlook, despite the fact that in his last intervention on Venezuela, Petro expressed his intention to keep channels open in a bid to dialogue and regional stability.

“There is no other alternative for Colombia than to have the Venezuelan regime as a neighbor. Regardless of the character he has. This is how we have lived with Venezuela for many years. You know that Venezuela has been the paradise of coups d’état and the de facto government,” said former Foreign Minister Londoño.

For his part, Néstor Rosania, professor of Political Science and International Relations at the Jorge Tadeo University of Bogotá, believes that the inauguration of President Maduro will be a thermometer of the diplomatic dynamics that Caracas will adopt.

“It is uncertain if a very strong change is going to occur within Venezuela. The truth is that any drastic movement within Venezuela, the first affected is Colombia. For now, relations between Colombia and Venezuela will remain more or less stable,” he concluded.

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