War in the Middle East and Ukraine, security crisis in South America and more political tensions

The wars in the Middle East, Ukraine or the Sahel advance with no apparent solution in sight in 2025

Peace efforts in Colombia or the fight against crime in Ecuador mark the situation in South America

Dec. 31 () –

The year 2024 comes to an end and leaves behind numerous open conflicts destined to continue throughout 2025, whether politically, such as the situation in Georgia or Pakistan, or through weapons, such as the wars in the East. Next, Sudan or in the Sahel region, the Russian invasion of Ukraine or the armed conflict in Colombia, where the Executive works to strengthen the so-called ‘total peace’.

In the Middle East, the Hamas attacks against Israel in October 2023 unleashed a wave of reactions from countries and organizations allied to the Palestinians and the even more forceful Israeli response against all of them. Throughout 2024, the Israeli Army has managed to hit Hamas and Hezbollah hard in Lebanon, now directs its attacks at the Houthis in Yemen and has seen a jihadist offensive overthrow Bashar al Assad in Syria.

Looking ahead to the new year, it is expected that Israel will end up resolving the situation in the Gaza Strip, either with some political agreement or with the occupation of the enclave, while in Lebanon the ceasefire agreement will conclude at the end of January. . However, Israeli authorities have always made it clear that the driving force behind all these groups is Iran, the final enemy identified by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

On the other hand, in Ukraine the war is advancing in an apparently unstoppable manner towards its third year, even more so after the failure of Hungarian attempts to reach a kind of Christmas truce accompanied by a large exchange of prisoners. Russia appears to be consolidating its positions in eastern Ukraine, although fighting continues in the Kursk region following the Ukrainian offensive in August.

Another area with open armed conflicts for a long time is the Sahel region, where the loss of influence of France in favor of Russia unleashed a succession of political changes, while the intensification of attacks by affiliates of the Islamic State and Al Qaeda leaves hundreds dead in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, where governments have reacted with repression against civilians.

Also in Africa, the war in Sudan has established itself this year as one of the main international conflicts due especially to the high numbers of victims. The country has been mired in a civil war since April 2023, when hostilities broke out over the integration of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the Armed Forces.

This conflict leaves more than 5,000 dead and 1.1 million refugees, according to United Nations data, and has also blown up the transition process opened after the overthrow in 2019 of Omar Hassan al Bashir, already damaged after the coup. of State in October 2021, in which the prime minister of unity, Abdullah Hamdok, was overthrown.

POLITICAL TENSIONS IN GEORGIA OR PAKISTAN

Beyond these armed confrontations, other countries face political tensions, in some cases derived from the war in Ukraine or Russian influence. This is the case of Georgia, where a government sympathetic to the Kremlin has put the brakes on the accession process to the European Union in the face of criticism from the opposition as a whole and a large part of the population.

This decision added to the general discontent of citizens, who months ago had already taken to the streets of the main streets of the country, including in the capital, Tbilisi, to protest against a law on foreign agents due to its apparent Russian influence, as well as for new legislation against the LGTBI community.

The security forces have detained dozens of people in the demonstrations against the Government, which have been supported by President Salomé Zurabishvili, of French origin and who, despite ascending to the Presidency at the hands of the governmental Georgian Dream, throughout of his mandate he has emerged as the main voice of the opposition.

Thus, while the Government relies on the results of the last legislative elections, it must also face citizen discontent and increasing pressure from the international community. The United States and some European countries have already approved sanctions against the Georgian government leadership.

On the other hand, in Pakistan, national and regional elections were held in 2024 marked by accusations of fraud and manipulation to try to keep former Prime Minister Imran Jan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party away from power, although the Independent deputies but close to the former president achieved a record number of seats.

Following this, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, considered the military’s preferred party, ascended to government, thus unleashing a crisis of disaffection and also tensions between citizens and the political class. Former Prime Minister Jan, imprisoned for various reasons, has also tried to stir up the population and organize marches to demand his release.

To the political and citizen tensions we must also add the unstable security situation in a country where separatism in Balochistan and the armed group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), known as the Pakistani Taliban, have carried out attacks. Looking ahead to next year, it is expected that the government and the military will expand their power in order to combat these sources of instability.

Another of the most turbulent scenarios in recent times in Taiwan, an island in the North Pacific off the coast of China that has become one of the main sources of tension between the United States and the ‘Asian giant’. For Beijing, the island is part of its territory and it assures that it will defend its sovereignty in an “unwavering” manner, although Washington has written down its commitment to safeguard Taiwanese security.

Rare is the month in which the Taiwanese authorities do not denounce naval or air incursions by Chinese forces into their territorial space; and in fact a few months ago Beijing launched the largest training program around the island, even simulating the blockade of ports and assault. Taiwan President William Lai’s trip to the South Pacific has intensified tensions with Beijing.

CONFLICTS IN SOUTH AMERICA

Finally, another of the regions with increasing conflicts is South America, especially in Colombia and Ecuador, where both governments are trying to confront the security crisis. In the case of Colombia, President Gustavo Petro is trying to strengthen his total peace plan, a proposal with which he appeared in the elections and which is still in negotiations some time later.

Colombian authorities have entered into dialogue with organized armed groups, splinters of the defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) such as the Central General Staff; the National Liberation Army (ELN), with which a ceasefire was reached; or the Gulf Clan.

In Ecuador, the security crisis ended up breaking out at the beginning of 2024, when armed groups even broke into the studios of a television network while it was broadcasting live. The Government of Daniel Noboa responded with a state of emergency that was extended for months and which was approved again at the end of the year.

Discontent with Noboa, the degradation of security and the continued widespread blackouts due to the lack of energy supply make Ecuador a country in tension and one that will precisely hold presidential elections during the first stages of the year.