Among so many hermeneutics regarding the statements made last weekend by Volodimir Zelensky in Hiroshima, the essential is often forgotten: Bakhmut does not exist. This is what the Ukrainian president came to say, beyond confirming or denying that it was in Russian hands. What was in his day Bakhmut, a city of 73,212 on the west side of the Donetsk region, is today a lot of gravel, craters, collapsed buildings and corpses on the roads. That is what, after ten months of relentless struggle, has “liberated” the wagner groupwith its owner Eugeni Prigozhin to the head.
Consequently, Bakhmut’s vaunted “taking” is really nothing more than the taking of one more building that is still standing, two or three streets, so many hundreds of meters… without any military utility. There is no infrastructure in Bakhmut that would allow the use of the ancient city for any military purpose. There is no possibility of housing troops for replacements in other places on the front and it is doubtful that the railway station can even be used, which in any case had already been in Russian hands for a month.
The important thing right now are the flanks. Prigozhin, with the permission of putin and collaboration at the time Surovikin —known as the “bloody dog” of the Kremlin—, before falling into disgrace, got into Bakhmut partly for personal interests (the Soledar salt mines, which are so reminiscent of those that Wagner controls in Africa, the possibility of prospering politically in Putin’s environment…) and partly because of the possibility that the city gave, in the event of a Ukrainian withdrawal, of affirming the eastern front and besieging the key towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Clearing of positions ?? by elements of the 3rd AZOV Assault Brigade ???️ west of Klishchiivka.
?Armament Operator ??
-FN MINIMI FOR ??(5.56x45mm) pic.twitter.com/FxsTx5gW8s—Galileo ?? (@GalileoArms) May 23, 2023
However, there was no withdrawal, there is no possible advance without ammunition and men to do so and, no matter how much this Tuesday a bombardment on Chasiv Yarthe truth is that the Wagner’s withdrawal announcementscheduled for this Thursday, leaves the Russian Army in a big problem: How do you maintain control over a collapsed space while the enemy threatens you frontally from the west and continues to advance south, towards Klishchiivka, from Ivanivske, and resist counterattacks? in the town of Khromove, north of the T0504?
Azov in Klishchiivka
Although in principle it does not appear that Ukraine’s goal is to retake Bakhmut -we insist, a place that no longer exists and whose reconquest would only mean an unnecessary expense of arms and human lives-, the truth is that the advance on the flanks makes control of the remains of the city more complicated, as well as the city itself day-to-day survival of the soldiers who are going to replace the mercenaries of the Wagner Group.
If Ukraine keeps advancing, sooner or later those troops will be pocketed and disabled. It is not to be ruled out that they have to withdraw as they already withdrew from the regions of Sumy, Kharkov and Kherson. The 3rd Azov Assault Brigade claims to have Klishchiivka within a stone’s throw, which would be a first step towards reaching T0513 and cutting another possible supply line to Bakhmut from Gorlovka. As we said before, the objective would not only be to advance for the sake of advancing, which is the favorite tactic of the Russians, but capture resources. Wear down and dislodge the enemy army as much as possible.
2023-05-23T130117Z_803937382_RC2D41AJHL5U_RTRMADP_3_UKRAINE-CRISIS-RUSSIA-BELGOROD
In this situation, it would not be ruled out that Putin will force Prigozhin to stay in Bakhmut. He has no means to replace his men and his presence is required if you want to continue fighting for the eastern part of Khromove and stop the advances in the south without having to send men from Zolote, Popasna or Severodonetsk. Any movement of pieces can trigger a subsequent attack in another area. For now, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is limited to that: strategic scores in certain areas in search of some weakness.
The dangerous example of Belgorod
The arrival of more weapons should change the situation, or at least that is how Zelenski himself (Minister Daisy Robles stated on Tuesday that six of the ten promised tanks are already in Ukraine, although he ruled out the sale of F-16 or the training of pilots for this type of aircraft, since the Spanish army works with F-18). Now, it is rare that, if you have to opt for a breaking point at the front, this is Bakhmut. Having the Russian troops there, worried about not losing what they have conquered, is more than enough.
It must be borne in mind that Russia’s winter offensive appears to have already finished with 0.1% of the Ukrainian territory conquered. There have been no significant advances on the entire front beyond the aforementioned destruction of Bakhmut. Therefore, the situation is not expected to change and, taking into account that Russia has its best men in the east, both Wagner and its regular army, the most sensible thing to do would be to attack south of the Dnieperwhere the defenses can be more permeable.
[Un grupo ruso anti Putin ataca Bélgorod: “Hay que poner fin a la dictadura del Kremlin”]
The example of the border with Belgorod is not without symptomatic of the problems that Russia has when it comes to organizing its defenses. That a few hundred militiamen manage to enter the country through the checkpoint, seize two villages and force the Kremlin to send reinforcements is worrying to say the least. Bearing in mind that the person in charge of bringing order is the general alexander lapinresponsible for the Bilohorivka disaster just a year ago, Any thing is possible.
