Ukraine must defend Chasiv Yar if it does not want to lose Donetsk

Within the slow but constant advance that the Russian army has been carrying out since the end of last year, the time has come for a new milestone that could be key: the taking of Chasiv Yar. Although Russian propaganda has insisted a lot on the value of its victories and although it must be recognized that Ukraine has accepted without question the public role of victim, the truth is that, since the taking of Avdivka, which cost tens of thousands of Russian lives only in exchange for living space for the occupied capital of Donetsk, these advances are counted in a few kilometers.

The fear, therefore, is of the future; to the possibility that, if the problems of ammunition shortage continue and if anti-aircraft batteries do not arrive that can protect the power plants that allow Ukraine to function on a daily basis, the front will end up collapsing. It has long been clear that only a major cataclysm would allow Russia to reach kyiv, but even thinking about reaching the eastern bank of the river Dnieper It seems like a real miracle since the summer of 2022.

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The war in Ukraine, no matter how much grandiloquence is used and no matter how much the Kremlin threatens to take it to other countries, remains largely the Donbas war. That is, we are living a continuation of the 2014 conflict with the difference that the number of troops and resources used are infinitely greater and that, incidentally, Russia has gained a good part of the access to the Black Sea by occupying the territories south of the Dnieper in Zaporizhia and Kherson.

Chasiv Yar and access to Sloviansk

When Russia speaks of “we are winning the war” it can only mean, therefore, that the total occupation of Donbas is closer. And the truth is that it is like that… but with nuances. Russia needs more than advancing dozens of kilometers in months. Something more than recovering what was lost after the capture of Bakhmut, something more than the eternal fighting in the vicinity of Kupiansk and something more than the very costly advances west of Avdivka. He needs to hit the table before the terrain fills with mud and the progress of the armored vehicles becomes impossible.

That hit on the table could be, as we said, Chasiv Yar. In the long battle of Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar served as a link for the Ukrainians between the surrounded city, its suburbs of Ivanivske and Khromove, and the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the great weapons center of Zelensky's army.

Although in the summer, Ukraine was able to once again surround Bakhmut and recover a good part of the surrounding territories, the fact is that during the winter and so far this spring it has lost almost everything it gained and the Russians are now at the gates of the city link.

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Chasiv Yar in itself is not a particularly large or populated city, but it is It is key in the protection of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk…and everyone knows that losing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk means for Ukraine that it will lose the war in Donbas. What would happen from then on is impossible to know.

In that sense, both armies have a lot at stake in this contest, although for different reasons: Ukraine must protect access to the jewels of its eastern crown; Russia needs victory to establish the story of triumphalism with which it is managing to block a good part of the West.

The summer offensive

Chasiv Yar stands out mainly for its altitude. That's what makes it such a difficult target to attack. The Russians say they have begun to occupy some houses in the easternmost corner of the city and this is verified by some geolocations, but the difficult thing will be to get to the center.

In principle, that should be a shooting range for the Ukrainians, as Avdivka was for months or Bakhmut or Vuhledar itself. The problem is that the Russians have no problem continuing to send men to die as long as it helps them advance one hundred more meters. AND Ukraine has no ammunition for so much kamikaze.

In that sense, if Ukraine manages to hold out before the renewal of Russian troops this summer, with the expected arrival of another 300,000 soldiers to the front, it will have a lot to gain. What awaits her is a barrage with all its letters, but she needs to weather the storm in any way possible so as not to leave the door open to the enemy.

If Russia demonstrates that it can take such an important piece on the board without even needing its new recruits, it will have sent an important message of superiority to the enemy and its allies.

Now, if it does not succeed, that is, if Russia gets stuck for months in Chasiv Yar and not even mobilization has any effect, the dynamic will have changed. Not the military, that is obvious, but the propaganda.

The last few months are too reminiscent of the first: the Russians want to make the world believe that their victory is inevitable and that helping Ukraine is just a waste of resources and a way to prolong suffering. There is also no shortage of threats to anyone who dares to stand against him, of course.

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Ukraine has the opportunity to show that this is not the case. Defending Chasiv Yar, a place that cannot be surrendered in any way, as it has surrendered so many others due to lack of means, would be an injection of optimism and a guarantee to be able to present to its reluctant allies, especially the United States: here we are, we can win, help us do it.

Putin is banking his victory on Trump's victory in November and the consequent dismemberment of the Western bloc, but that is not so clear in the polls. Seven months left. If Ukraine resists and the democrats win, we will enter another phase of the war.