Ukraine fears an attack from Belarus and Transnistria that will force it to divert troops from Donbas

Although in the end the Russian troops did not enter exactly through that road, Prytula fears that we could be witnessing the beginning of a distraction maneuver which could culminate in a double attack from the north (Belarus) and the southwest (Transnistria).

It should be noted that both possibilities are now quite remote. Firstly, as Prytula himself admits, the 1,100 Belarusian soldiers would clearly be insufficient for the attempt to cross the border. However, they can serve as a lure for Oleksandr Syrskyi’s army, which may be forced to send some divisions to the area to ensure that there are no surprises later.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Belarus’s involvement as an active party in the conflict is highly unlikely. Lukashenko has presidential elections early next year and does not want any trouble. Obviously, he will win the elections no matter what he does, but in 2021 he already experienced several uprisings that had to be put down by the armed forces.

The opposition to the Belarusian dictator is divided and dismembered by the government’s ongoing repressive operations, but sending the army into a war would be a highly unpopular act… and would distract him from his main current occupation: protecting the regime.

On alert for Chernobyl

However, the Ukrainian government is not taking the Belarusian threat lightly. Kiev has not welcomed the military exercises that have served as an excuse to place so many men in Gomel. The Ministry of Defense issued an official statement this week in which warned Minsk that any action that put its territorial integrity at risk would be harshly answered.

Poland, a neighbouring country of both states and a member of NATO, is also on edge, especially after the invasion of airspace by a Russian missile during the savage attacks on Lviv last Monday.

The Zelensky government is also not happy about the fact that these exercises are taking place so close to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which almost forms the border between the two countries. The Kiev government has publicly warned about the risks of starting military activity so close to the radioactive safety zone, something that Russia already did in its efforts to reach the capital in the first days of the offensive.

As for the possible attack that Prytula predicts from Transnistriait is true that it was also in the Ukrainian government’s alert plans before the invasion, but over time it has been shown very unlikely.

Transnistria is a region of Moldova controlled by a pro-Russian government. Its situation is similar to that of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk before the war: it has no international recognition, not even from Russia itself, but in practice it functions as an independent entity.

That said, Transnistria is a very unsuitable place to deploy large numbers of men and launch an invasion. For starters, these men could only get there via the Black Sea, and the Russian fleet has long since ceased to have full control of the area. How do you transport 10,000 or 20,000 men by ship to there and then unleash them on Odessa? It seems like a suicide mission, even by the usual standards of the Russian military.

Lure game

The only purpose of these strange moves, as we said, is to mislead the Ukrainian high command. They are baits for Syrskyi to send some of the men defending Donbas to the border with Belarus. With the Russian army ten kilometres from Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s major communications and logistics centre in Donetsk, along with the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk conglomerate, it is difficult to imagine that anyone will take the bait.

And it is that losing Pokrovskas we said on Tuesday, would be of enormous importance for Ukraine. That’s where they come from five highways and several railway lines which supplies food and ammunition to virtually the entire Eastern Front. In a way, it fulfils the function that Avdiivka was entrusted with until its fall in February, after two years of continuous Russian offensives.

The problem here is more one of build-up than anything else: ten kilometres is a long way off in this war, but Pokrovsk is not the only town Ukraine has to defend: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Vuhledar and Niu York are also seriously threatened, and there are doubts as to whether Syrskyi will have enough men to plug all the holes.

At the moment, it does seem that he has them for resist at Kurskwhere the Ukrainian army has been stationed for a month. The territory under its control is already close to 1,500 square kilometres and more than a hundred towns have been occupied. Russia seems to have contained the invasion before Ukrainian troops took Korenevo and Rilsk.

They also seem to have halted their advance towards Gir’i, although clashes are constant throughout the region. With what Gerasimov has sent, he can give to stop the Ukrainians, but not to regain groundRussia hopes to do so when its mission in Donetsk is over, but trust is not enough.

At this time, both countries are assuming a huge risk: Ukraine has decided to open a new front to relieve the one in Donetsk. So far, it has not achieved the mobilization it had hoped for, but its depleted troops have not collapsed in the face of Russian offensives. If advancing on Kursk ends up causing the fall of Pokrovsk, obviously, the move would have gone wrong.

Now, the opposite could happen: Russia could be allowing Ukraine to advance on its side of the border in the hope of winning the battle in Donetsk – and failing to do so. In that case, it would be left half-hearted on both fronts, and the consequences could be very damaging for Moscow.