Ukraine advances in Donetsk and Bakhmut and tries to take access to Mariupol in the first phase of the offensive

Malyar has limited himself to confirming what we already sensed since Sunday. This was indicated to us by the news from the front and the new statements by President Zelensky, insisting from Odessa that they were prepared for the counteroffensive.

Although Zelensky acknowledged that they would like to have more weapons, he publicly admitted that they couldn’t keep waiting much longer. The window of opportunity that opens right now for Ukraine in the face of Russian military chaos, with open confrontations between mercenaries, Chechen paramilitaries and the high command of the Ministry of Defense, is too tempting to miss.

[Prigozhin dice que “los juegos peligrosos” del Kremlin pueden “destruir el Estado ruso”]

The offensive, as was foreseeable, has begun at several points at once, and it is normal that it lasts a long time. Large enemy collapses as happened in Kharkov or Kherson are not expected. Taking the initiative was the first step, but it is still necessary to continue, little by little, undermining the resistance of the invader, something that has been done in the last month with surgical attacks on supply posts, refineries, fuel and ammunition depots . Also with the constant bombardment of the ports of Mariupol and, above all, Berdyansk, which makes it impossible or at least threatens the transport of arms and men across the Azov Sea.

To this must be added the attacks on key cities in the Russian rearwhere the largest number of troops and weapons had been concentrated, ready for use at the right time: Krasnodar, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod… In the latter province, skirmishes between the Volunteer Corps and the Legion continue. of Free Russia, who do not give up their positions no matter how much Shoigu and company insist on assuring the contrary.

The fight for T0518

Most of these preemptive attacks, unspectacular but very effective in the medium term, have taken place in the Orikhov-Tokmak-Berdiansk axis. It’s not by chance. It is the key geographical point in the current balance of forces. Initially, it was thought that the attack would be launched directly on Vasiliivka, but the Russians probably sensed the move and that’s why it was easier to attack a few kilometers further east. Specifically, the two real starting points for the offensive, including the shipment of the first Leopard tanks, have been Novodarivka and Novodonetsk.

The success of the raids on both cities could make it possible to close a triangle that includes the city of Velyka Novosilka in the north and the enclave of Staromlynivka in the south. If Ukraine manages to control that area in the next few days, it will have in its hands the T0518 highway and, with it, the possible access to the southpassing through Nikolske and staying twenty kilometers from the port city of Mariupol, the great symbol of the Ukrainian resistance during the first months of the Russian invasion.

Getting to Mariupol can be a long matter of months. Ukraine may never even achieve such an ambitious goal… but just trying means, at the very least, stirring up the hornet’s nest just when we know that Chechen troops are not yet organized, that Wagner is in retreat looking for an operational pause and that the Russian army is not even capable of covering the cracks in its own border. It is, in that sense, the ideal time and place, although surely the offensive has to go in phasesas Western weaponry becomes available.

The mere fact of advancing along the T0518 means split the two fronts and separate the troops. To plug the leak, Russia will have to decide whether to send reinforcements from Donetsk and Mariupol itself… or from Vasiliivka, Tokmak and Berdiansk. In either case, there will be a maladjustment that will allow to start successive offensives at those points. In fact, it would make sense for Ukraine to reserve its coup de grace for later, when it is fully prepared for it and once it has further depleted, thanks to British Storm Shadows, the Russian supply lines.

Surrounding Bakhmut and Donetsk

Although the Zaporizhia region and its border with Donetsk is by far the hottest spot in this phase of the war, Ukraine has also reported progress in other important areas of the eastern front. As Eugeni Prigozhin himself, head of the Wagner Group, had already announced, the Russian army would be withdrawing from the Ukrainian attacks in the northwest of Bakhmut, specifically at the Berkhivka site.

For now, Zaluzhnyi’s army is avoiding frontal confrontation in what was the urban center of Bakhmut, seeking to surround the city and thus advance more quickly. He has been driving the enemy troops away from the city of Ivanivske for weeks and an advance in the north would drive them away from Khromove, forcing a withdrawal towards Krasna Hora, another of the important supply and maintenance nodes for the eastern troops. Russia can lose in weeks what it got in months by sending men and men to the slaughterhouse.

[Rusia asegura haber repelido una gran ofensiva en Donetsk]

Now, the real battle in the east may be taking place in the vicinity of the capital Donetsk, in Russian hands since 2015. During the winter, both Surovikin and later Gerasimov tried to drive away Ukrainian troops with unsuccessful attacks on Vuhledar and Avdiivka, in addition to the almost complete destruction of the city of Mariinka. Resistance at those points now forces the Russians to lock on the capital with his enemies ten kilometers away.

In the last few hours, Ukrainian attacks and advances have been reported in Staromykhalilivka, a town between Mariinka and Lozove, which can practically be considered a suburb of the capital itself. Russia will now have to decide how it deals with so many threats. He must protect Donetsk, he cannot allow his troops to become embroiled in Bakhmut and, above all, he must prevent the Ukrainians from breaching the lines that separate northern and southern Zaporizhia east of the Dnieper river. For its part, Ukraine is confident that the movement of chips will give them more holes for their next offensives, this time with Abrams, F16 and who knows if ATACMS. It’s a very long summer ahead.