The International Monetary Fund report resurfaces the secular evils that make growth impossible in Ashgabat: the “black accounting” of the Berdymukhamedov regime, in which income from the sale of gas and oil does not appear, and the black market for manat , the local currency, which unloads all the burdens and imbalances on the shoulders of the population.
Ashgabat () – The International Monetary Fund has published the report with the evaluations of its mission to Turkmenistan, carried out between March 27 and April 9 under the direction of Anna Bordon, to analyze changes in the country's economy. The conclusions are not encouraging: there has been a sharp slowdown in growth in 2023, which has not exceeded 2%, and not the 6.3% declared by the Ashgabat authorities. A critical factor is the difficulty in properly using the income from the hydrocarbon sector, as well as the lack of a true reform of the monetary and credit system, with the persistence of a double currency exchange, the official one and that of the black market.
The Turkmen political scientist Kumuš Bajriev commented in Azatlyk on the IMF data, which he described as a “diagnosis” that is certainly not new, in fact it is repeated regularly and reiterates the “recipes” to cure diseases that seem chronic, trying to convince the leaders of the country to change the economic model, which is decidedly unadapted to the needs of the population. The monetary duality between the variable exchange rates of the manat and the dollar is largely a Soviet legacy that weighs on the real economy, since only the big “bosses” can convert money into real assets, while for the Small and medium-sized companies continue to be a closed circle that tries to survive in a market that is not developing.
The main problem, according to Bajriev, remains the government's economic policy, which “discharges all burdens and imbalances on the shoulders of the population.” All production of food, miscellaneous items and services that depend on imports are offered at prices determined by the “black” rate of the dollar, that is, the real rate, while salaries and pensions are calculated on the official rate, which makes the purchasing power of families almost null, which “remain chained to an extremely low standard of living.” According to official statistics, salaries rise regularly, but in reality they are below the cost of living, and discounts on social and municipal services and public transport are of little use.
As was the case in the Soviet Union, to find out the real prices of products you just have to go to the market or any bazaar, where everything is based on the real exchange rate of the dollar and is very inaccessible to the large mass of the population. The same thing happens dramatically in the pharmaceutical sector, where with few exceptions such as oncology or hepatitis C drugs, the rest of the drugs are sold at world average prices or even higher, and a large number of patients are left without the necessary remedies. .
The IMF report then highlights the “black accounting” of Berdymukhamedov's own dynastic regime, in which income from the sale of gas and oil is not highlighted, in a chapter titled “The President's Personal Pocket.” Despite the cosmetic changes in the rules governing this sector, the scheme remains the same: 20% of the income goes to the State budget, while 80% remains at the disposal of the president (father and son). . For the rest, the budget is formed by tax collection and international payments, such as the fee for cargo planes that fly over Turkmenistan's airspace.
There is also no control by institutions and society of the country's gold and currency reserves, how many there are and where they are, whether they produce assets abroad or any other detail. Obviously, the IMF insists on the “need for greater transparency”, which applies to the economic parameters, but also to the political and social management of Turkmenistan and its more than 7 million inhabitants.
