The “yao guan” story shows that the US cannot laugh at China’s intentions

One of the few things that literally everyone agrees on is the tension between China and the United States. In today’s world, torn by great geopolitical uncertainties, people rarely agree on anything.

Perhaps the most important bilateral relationship in the world, they are at their lowest point since the two countries reestablished diplomatic relations in the 1970s. As Beijing and Washington openly discuss a wide range of issues, from trade to technology and human rightspeople wonder if the relationship It can get worse. Well, yes you can. Despite repeated warnings from China, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appears to be going ahead with a controversial visit to Taiwan.

She has not confirmed the trip, reportedly scheduled for early August, but media outlets reported Thursday that her office had begun inviting other lawmakers to travel with her to the island. In the last week, spokesmen for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense have warned that a visit by Pelosi would cross “a red line” and would be met with “forceful measures.”

In a phone call with US President Joe Biden on Thursday night, President Xi Jinping warned against playing with fire over Taiwan, without directly mentioning Pelosi’s possible trip. “Those who play with fire will perish for it,” Xinhua told Biden. “Hopefully the United States has clear ideas on this.”

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In response, Biden said that US policy on Taiwan has not changed and that Washington firmly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, according to a White House statement.

Chinese leaders often use the expression “playing with fire” to warn against any move they see as promoting Taiwan independence, but in this case, Xi’s warning is apparently aimed at Pelosi’s possible trip.

US officials may argue that, even as a senior lawmaker, Pelosi’s trip is different from a visit by a senior administration official. Therefore, she does not violate the agreement between the countries that discourages high-level official contacts with Taiwan. But from the Chinese point of view, Pelosi, the top leader of Congress and second in line for the presidency, is no different from US President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, above all. because they come from the same political party.

In a phone call with US President Joe Biden on Thursday night, President Xi Jinping warned against playing with fire over Taiwan.

The news of his visit has put both Beijing and Washington in a very difficult situation, as neither wants to back down and be seen as weak at a time of heightened tensions. This has given rise to concerns of a new and dangerous crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

It would be hard to overstate the ramifications if Pelosi ignored the warnings and went ahead with her trip to Taiwan, especially since anti-China hawks in Washington, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, egged her on. It would be a grave mistake if they dismissed China’s warnings as mere “empty threats.”

To some extent, there is a sense of déjà vu in the latest tensions over Taiwan. It evokes memories of a bloody chapter in the two countries’ history more than 70 years ago, when the United States laughed at China’s warnings, leading to the Korean War.

When the Korean War began in June 1950, the Chinese leadership had no intention of intervening. The situation changed after General Douglas MacArthur led the US military to a successful landing at Incheon on September 15 and defeated the North Korean forces. Concerned about US intentions toward China, the country’s leaders at the time launched an intense diplomatic campaign, primarily through the former Soviet Union at the United Nations, and through Indian diplomatic channels, to warn US forces not to advance beyond the 38th parallel. Realizing that US-led forces were about to cross that line, Zhou Enlai made several public speeches threatening Chinese intervention in Korea.

US officials may argue that even as a senior lawmaker, Pelosi’s trip is different from a visit by a senior administration official.

In the early hours of October 3, Zhou made one last attempt by summoning KM Panikkar, the Indian ambassador to China, for an urgent meeting. Zhou told Panikkar that if US forces crossed the 38th parallel and widened the war, China would intervene. Zhou used the simple Chinese words yao guan to convey Beijing’s intention. The two words can have many meanings in Chinese and could be translated as “take care” or “take charge.” Before the meeting, Zhou even argued with the interpreter about finding a precise English term for yao guan.

But Zhou’s painstaking efforts were in vain. General MacArthur and US politicians in Washington largely dismissed Zhou’s public and private warnings as empty threats. Dean Acheson, then Secretary of State, went so far as to say that Zhou was not an authorized spokesman, while President Harry Truman believed that Zhou’s warning was nothing more than political blackmail and dismissed Panikkar’s message as simply “a broadcast of communist propaganda.

What followed was a hot war that cost millions of lives, which was followed by a cold war between the countries that lasted until the early 1970s. Since then, the bilateral relationship has come a long way. Despite rising tensions, Beijing and Washington have tried to maintain direct communication to manage volatile ties from the highest levels of government and the military on down.

But the risk of misunderstandings and miscalculations remains great. It is true that the tone and language of China’s statements about Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan are not very different from the rhetoric directed against Newt Gingrich, who went to Taiwan in 1997 when he was Speaker of the House of Representatives. So China had a different leader and the country was comparatively much weaker. Today, Xi has become the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. He is in the process of seeking a norm-breaking third term as party boss sometime in the fall. At this crucial moment, he cannot afford to be seen as weak. And more importantly, the Chinese military has become much more powerful.

Interestingly, Biden said publicly that the US military thought Pelosi’s possible trip to Taiwan “wasn’t a good idea right now.” The Pentagon — along with some White House officials — is said to be pressuring Pelosi’s office to postpone the trip. After all, the US military knows best the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces. When push came to shove, the US military would have to bear the brunt.

Despite rising tensions, Beijing and Washington have attempted to maintain direct communication

Of course, the US side will also find it difficult to back down now. If Pelosi does not leave, the United States will be seen as having bowed to Chinese pressure and given Beijing a victory, weakening its future moves in the eyes of the Chinese. Many US politicians, including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, believe China is overreacting and are skeptical whether the two countries would actually go to war over a high-level congressional trip to Taiwan.

Do you really want to find out? Judging from the tone and language of China’s statements, they are much stronger than the yao guan words spoken by Zhou Enlai 72 years ago.

Note: The article was originally published in English on the SCMP portal, and its reproduction in Spanish is done with the direct authorization of the author. Link to original article: https://amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3187007/xi-jinping-warns-joe-biden-taiwan-history- yao-guan-shows-us