The return of moderation

Federalism and the majority electoral system in the United States privilege the representation of rural, conservative and sparsely populated states, in such a way that since 1994 Congress has been practically divided into two halves, despite the fact that the Republican Party actually represents , to a minority of national opinion. In this way the elections are existentially close: a few seats determine control of the House of Representatives, and only one the Senate.

The Democrats’ campaign in the recent midterm elections has been particularly ineffective: the electorate is primarily concerned about inflation and the rising cost of living, and Republicans blame the Democrats for their economic policy and the generous subsidies they they have “gifted” to the population. They blame the Democrats for not having resolved the tremendous problem of immigration, which mainly agitates the social sector that supports them, without wanting to recognize that it has been their obstructionism that has prevented the reform of the system. The issue of abortion, inflamed by a Supreme Court ruling, has been left in the background, and the denunciations of the tricks of the Republicans to restrict or even suppress the vote have not finished alerting opinion.

In this context, it has been surprising that the Republicans have not managed to drown the Democrats with a “red wave”. Although the counting of the vote is not over yet, it seems that they will win the majority of the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the majority of only one seat has been relegated to a second round in Georgia. The unexpected strength of the Democratic Party has also been seen in the election of governors in states as divided as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; perhaps also, when the scrutiny ends, in Arizona, Oregon and Kansas.

It has been even more surprising that elections have regularly passed without the violence, voter intimidation and threats to election officials expected from Trumpists. They have unsuccessfully tried to inflate a few irrelevant incidents and start a few lawsuits that will go nowhere, as happened in 2020.

It seems as if we are returning to the usual regularity. Most of the Republican candidates who, loudly supported by Trump, denied the validity of the 2020 elections have been defeated by moderate Democratic or Republican candidates.

It is showing that the influence of Donald Trump is clearly diminishing. Many of the candidates he endorsed for both Congress and governorships have been defeated. They were so bad looking that they went beyond what the Trumpist electorate itself wanted.

It has been the independents and the moderates of both parties who have won this authentic national referendum. They have alienated both extremists from Trumpism and extremists from the ideological left from the Democrats. Legislative elections midway through the presidential term have always been a referendum on the president; this time they have also been a referendum of Trump and the Republicans. The revelations that pertinaciously and daily emerged from the investigation committee of the assault on the Capitol of January 6, 2021 have had their natural effect. The prevailing public concern about inflation and the rising cost of living, which Republicans have been taking advantage of in their campaign, has been offset by the abortion legislation that Republican states have rushed to adopt after the judgment of the Supreme Court.

“These elections demonstrate how American society is reacting against the authoritarianism and incipient fascism that Trump has awakened”

The center of the electorate has understood that despite the Trumpist inclination that many felt, and the disappointment of a Democratic government that has not known or been able to overcome the legislative paralysis, the Republicans do not have a political program. Furthermore, to the emptiness of the “Reaganism” that they repeat monotonously without any substance, is added the reality that many have perceived of blatantly favoring the more affluent classes and opposing union negotiations that are of interest to workers in these pressing times.

Society in the US is made up of very strong classes, not only in their ideas but also in their articulation in numerous and influential organizations and groups, as Alexis de Tocqueville already pointed out in his time. The judiciary is part of this national composition. Despite the disrepute into which the entire political system has fallen, including the Supreme Court itself, these elections demonstrate how American society is reacting against the authoritarianism and incipient fascism that Trump, the true succubus of democracy, has awakened.

The majority in the House of Representatives that the Republicans may very well win will be a very slim majority, the same as the five-seat majority enjoyed by the Democratic majority. Thus, the legislative paralysis of recent years will continue. The Congress will not be able to face the solution of the great problems of the country that have not been mentioned at all during the campaign. The Republican Party Trumpists will blackmail their majority by demanding concessions to their nihilistic extremism. Devoid of purpose, the Republicans will set about shutting down anything the president tries and retaliating with a multitude of “investigations,” perhaps even impeaching the president and his core supporters.

Unfortunately, the impossibility of bipartisanship will condemn US foreign policy to the same fate.

The entry The Return of Moderation was first published in Foreign Policy.

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