The popular party recovers very slightly, but the positions facing 23J remain with hardly any changes. That was the fixed photo this Monday, before the ‘face to face’ held at Atresmedia between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo: the tracking of Simple Lógica for elDiario.es, with data collected before the debate, indicates that the popular ones barely managed to distance themselves minimally from the PSOE. A residual change that has no effect on the distribution of deputies.
The tracking estimates that the popular will win the general elections and will be held on 23J with 31.1% of the votes, two tenths more than in Monday’s survey. Of course, the rise is so small that it does not allow them to scratch new seats. The PP would get between 122 and 132 seats, compared to the 88 it currently has.
The problem for the PP is that despite winning, the absolute majority is still a long way off. It does not even come with the help of the deputies that Vox would obtain. The far-right party would take 14.5% of the votes – without variations compared to the previous poll – and would put together a parliamentary group of between 36 and 42 deputies, a setback compared to the 52 it garnered four years ago.
The transfer of votes from Vox to PP, and therefore of seats in the Congress of Deputies, depletes the far-right formation in such a way that it makes it impossible for both parties. In the most optimistic and improbable scenario calculated by SImple Lógica, with the two formations in the upper part of the range, there would be two deputies below the absolute majority, set at 176. This is an optimistic hypothesis because the variations usually occur in the distribution within each block (right or left).
The PSOE also remains unchanged, awaiting the effect that the debate may cause. Sánchez came with the intention of giving a blow to the campaign but was unable to impose his rhythm in the face of Feijóo’s attacks, who were on the defensive for practically the entire ‘face to face’.
Before the face-to-face, the Socialists remained at 28.8% of the vote estimate, which would result in a parliamentary group made up of between 107 and 117 deputies, below the current 120.
A hypothetical alliance with Sumar would still leave them far from an absolute majority and would force them to try to put together a pact with various parties. Yolanda Díaz’s platform adds one tenth to her vote estimate and is now at 15%, practically tied for third place with the extreme right, but it is also useless to add new seats: she would get between 36 and 43.
In the most optimistic and improbable scenario for the left – that both achieve the maximum of what the traking estimates – they would lack 16 deputies to reach an absolute majority and reissue the coalition.
Sánchez, Feijóo and Abascal fall in valuation
As for the evaluation of leaders, those of PP and PSOE fall and so does Vox. The Prime Minister, right now the candidate with the best rating, suffers two tenths, up to 43.4% approval. Sumar’s candidate, Yolanda Díaz, is the only one who improves her grade. In her case, she a tenth, up to 39.7%.
The PP candidate remains in third position, with no chance of competing for second. Feijóo falls four tenths, to 28.4% approval, before the Atresmedia face-to-face was held. The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, is the one who suffers the most: compared to the previous day’s poll, he drops one point and remains with a positive assessment of 17.4%.
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