The opposition primaries in Venezuela, an appointment with a date but without consensus

The Venezuelan opposition already has a date to choose a single candidate to face Nicolás Maduro in the next presidential elections, but it is far from reaching a consensus for the construction of political strategies that achieve a change of government in Venezuela.

“They still haven’t resolved the things that divide them. They do not have a common strategic objective. The reality is that there is no consensus about how to characterize your adversary, and what are the mechanisms to achieve political change and maintain it. Without these clear objectives and without these consensuses, they will not be able to advance in obtaining a solid candidacy”, explains Oswaldo Ramírez, director of ORC Consultores, to France 24.

High levels of rejection towards politicians

The most recent Datincorp study, published on February 5, showed that 70% of Venezuelans are disappointed in politicians. 47% of the country say they prefer a candidate who is independent and 30% who comes from the new political parties. Only 14% bet on a candidate from the traditional parties.

“The country’s crisis has a fault of origin and that is that in Venezuela the political parties disappeared, which are the maximum representation of a collective and collegiate leadership (…) In the opposition what there is is an archipelago of personal projects and each one is setting up a little party that serves as a platform to be president of the Republic, they are very vain politicians and that makes it difficult to understand each other,” the president of Datincorp, Jesús Seguías, told France 24.

Seguías assures that today the Venezuelan “doesn’t care” who the presidential candidate is. “He is not aware of the politician who wants to be president. He wants a government that resolves, he wants to stop suffering ”.

The level of rejection among the main opposition candidates is between 66 and 83%, with Juan Guaidó being the worst positioned, whose candidacy for the primaries on October 22 has already been taken for granted although he has not yet formalized it. “It is a difficult scenario. There is a lot of disagreement, many disqualifications and until a candidate emerges capable of bringing them all together, who is not on the wave of the fight, it will be very difficult for the opposition to have a coherent approach, and for this reason the government will insist on the strategy of dividing them”.

A fractured opposition with several possible candidates in sight

For the director of ORC Consultores Oswaldo Ramírez, in Venezuela there are five groups that oppose the government: the group headed by the so-called G3, made up of the Acción Democrática, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Primero Justicia parties; those who closed ranks together with the interim government of Juan Guaidó and Voluntad Popular with Leopoldo López at the head; the parties that have emerged in the last three years such as Fuerza Vecinal and Alianza Lápiz; the so-called co-opted, who have been present in elections since 2017, and finally those who have followed a more radical line against Chavismo such as María Corina Machado and Andrés Velásquez. “At most there can be a potential union of three of those groups. There are groups that have no intention of cooperating with others to have political force,” Ramírez said.

Although there is talk that more than 20 politicians intend to register as pre-candidates for the opposition primaries, pollsters agree that five leaders are leading the polls, mostly led by María Corina Machado, a leader characterized by not giving concessions to Chavismo and who today capitalizes on the discontent of the toughest opposition that feels disappointed by the Interim Government chaired by Juan Guaidó, by allegations of corruption under the interim and by the traditional political parties.

Benjamín Rausseo, a Venezuelan comedian and businessman better known as “Er Conde del Guácharo” who ran his name as a candidate for the primaries on October 22. Rausseo was already a candidate in 2006 but withdrew before the race.

Henrique Capriles, former governor of Miranda state and twice presidential candidate in 2012 and 2013. Although his party will hold internal primaries to choose the candidate, everything seems to indicate that he will be the standard-bearer. A political disqualification weighs on Capriles since 2017, which calls into question whether he can really aspire to a presidential election.

Manuel Rosales, current governor of Zulia state, who in 2006 lost the elections against then-president Hugo Chávez would be the champion for the Un Nuevo Tiempo party in the primaries.

The worst positioned in the polls is Juan Guaidó, with a rejection level of 83%, even higher than Nicolás Maduro. “That always happens when leaders fail. He promised Venezuelans that Maduro had little time left, he had the unrestricted support of 50 countries like never before in Latin America, in addition to handling billions of dollars with the purpose of displacing Maduro from power. The Venezuelans took their toll on him,” said the director of Datincorp. In the opinion of Seguías, Rausseo is the only one who has “growth magic” because he does not come from the opposition ranks, but there is still a long way to go.

Maduro facing the presidential elections

According to the most recent Datincorp study, Nicolás Maduro dropped five popularity points in the last year and has a rejection level of 69%. “It has to do with the economic crisis in the country that is worsening again, the inflationary issue, the devaluation of the dollar. Everything has influenced that many who supported him no longer are. Their roof is those who identify with the government, which is in the order of 20% of those who live in Venezuela.

ORC Consultores coincides in the percentage. “Today Maduro has approximately 20% popular support. That 20% can be converted electorally into 30 or 40% depending on the moment and how society participates in the potential election. For now, I think that what Chavismo has to do is try to prevent people from migrating towards the non-aligned, who are 50% of the country, people who say: I am not with the opposition or with the government”.

An October 22 surrounded by questions

Although the National Commission for Primaries managed to define October 22 as the date for the election, there are multiple questions surrounding the process. “There is still a long way to go before it can be said that the majority of actors are relatively satisfied with their demands in order to participate in the primaries. Demands that range from the participation of the CNE, the use of fingerprint capture, the participation of the disabled, voting abroad -among others- that can lead candidates to express their doubts within the process,” warned Ramírez.

One of the most critical issues was the decision to allow disqualified politicians to participate in the opposition primaries. What will be the mechanism for replacing the candidate in the event that he is not allowed to participate in the election? A complex point, especially for those candidates who are not within the Unitary Platform.

In the opinion of political consultant Jesús Seguías, there are three fundamental requirements for a candidate to win the presidency of Venezuela after 24 years of Chavismo in power: “That he have the capacity to unite the greatest number of Venezuelans, not just opponents, because the opposition vote was greatly diminished with the exodus of almost 4 million citizens who do not have the ability to vote. Secondly, “to have the ability to claim victory, that the government trusts him, that there will be no persecution, that Chavismo and the PSUV will continue to exist as a political force, that there will be no imprisonment or persecution. And thirdly, that he has the capacity to govern. A president who is capable of establishing consensus, harmony and social peace so that the country can stabilize”.

“The issue is that in the opposition there are two tendencies regarding the primary. The first is from those who want to choose a candidate who is capable of meeting these three requirements and want a winning candidate who can govern, but others see the primaries as the mechanism to define and legitimize the new opposition leadership. They are two different trends. That marks a special characteristic within the primaries.”

He notes that there are 55 registered parties in the CNE, almost all opposition parties and each one has its own candidate. “That number of candidates is a demonstration that Venezuelan politics is no man’s land. Nobody controls anything, it’s a mess and I don’t see people with four fingers capable of putting order”, concluded Seguías.