economy and politics

The IDB, ECLAC and the World Bank Group estimate that timely action avoided an impact of 1.1 percentage points of GDP in Rio Grande do Sul

A joint report was prepared and published today by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the World Bank Group, in alliance with various entities of the United Nations System in Brazil, with strategic recommendations for the resilient recovery of the areas affected by the floods that hit Rio Grande do Sul in April and May of this year. The document also includes a technical assessment of the damage and losses caused by the floods.

The report was prepared by a technical team made up of more than 40 professionals, many of them in locu to collect data, combined with images captured by satellites and other materials to compose an independent and solid panorama of 13 sectors (education, health, culture, housing, affected population, drinking water, transportation, electricity sector, agriculture, accommodation and catering, commerce , livestock, industry and environment). The study is presented to Brazil and the people of Rio Grande do Sul as a contribution free of any financial compensation.

The report presents a series of recommendations focused on resilient reconstruction to be applied in the short term (6 to 12 months) and another with strategic recommendations for the medium term. The main recommendations include the reconstruction of structures to improve flood resilience (levees with a consistent height and a pumping system), the protection of the population located in risk areas, the improvement of early warning systems, the updating of the master plans and the formalization of a technical-scientific body to identify risks, among others. The document also emphasizes the importance of reconstruction being guided by the concepts of resilience and climate adaptation, in addition to recommending greater integration between different levels of government and universities to obtain timely information and generate rapid responses.

Prepared based on an internationally recognized methodology for the Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) of disasters, developed by ECLAC, the study estimates the effects of floods in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 at R$ 88 .9 billion reais, of which 69% (R$ 61 billion reais) correspond to the productive sector, 21% to social sectors (R$ 19 billion reais); 8% to infrastructure (R$ 7 billion reais); and 1.8% to the environment (R$ 1.6 billion reais).

At the same time, the document highlights the crucial and timely reaction of public authorities to contain the economic impacts of floods. According to the study, the transfer of resources to affected families and companies, as well as the speed with which governments carried out recovery efforts, avoided a negative impact equivalent to 1.1 percentage points of state GDP, allowing the growth for the year was 4.7%.

The report was prepared by a multidisciplinary team made up of experts from the three institutions and various entities of the United Nations System, who worked closely with federal, state and municipal authorities to collect data and evaluate the impacts. An international mission was in Rio Grande do Sul in June to conduct interviews and field analysis that added materials such as satellite images for calculations.

“With this joint work, we lay the foundations for a strategically planned and resilient reconstruction of the State. The IDB is available to help implement the study’s recommendations. The IDB has made R$ 5.5 billion reais available to the RS, of which R$ 1.5 billion were made available in the six months after the floods. “We are working with federal and state authorities to expand our support in the medium and long term with high-impact measures such as the reconstruction of schools and health centers and support for micro, small and medium-sized businesses,” said Ilan Goldfajn, President of the IDB.

Johannes Zutt, World Bank director for Brazil, noted that “the report reveals that the visible damage from the floods is only half of the economic impact. The other half includes losses suffered by small businesses, farming communities and industries, causing cascading effects that will take years to recover. Without a coordinated recovery plan, social inequalities in the state will increase. The World Bank Group supports local efforts to increase resilience to climate disasters, financing infrastructure and drainage projects in cities in Rio Grande do Sul and southern Brazil, supporting the ecosystem of affected small and medium-sized businesses, including Porto Alegre, and also in association with the Regional Development Bank of the Far South (BRDE).”

“This report, based on the DaLA methodology developed by ECLAC and applied to more than a hundred disasters in 28 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, is an essential milestone for the reconstruction plan, offering society a clear vision of the impact of the disaster on different sectors. More than that, it reinforces the importance of estimating damage and losses as a first step in disaster risk management, a practice in line with Brazil’s new National Civil Protection and Defense Plan, as well as the Sendai Framework for “Risk and Disaster Reduction,” said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of ECLAC.

Recommendations for a resilient structure

In the short term, the report recommends, among other actions:

  • Prioritize the reconstruction of structures that integrate measures to improve flood resilience, for example, levees with a consistent height and a pumping system, especially with a view to the 2025 rainy season
  • Project and construction of flood control works to protect the population located in areas of mitigatable risk
  • Improve early warning and emergency management systems
  • Design reconstruction actions that also maximize job creation, especially for the most vulnerable populations
  • Define the regions in which homes should not be built again.
  • Formalize a state technical-scientific organization to identify catastrophe risks.

Medium-term recommendations include:

  • Maintain risk management as a long-term public policy and formalize a technical-scientific instance for risk identification
  • Strengthen coordination between organizations from different levels of government and different municipalities with special attention to risk management
  • Update municipal “master plans” including climate modeling and considering the possibility of infrastructure being overloaded in the event of flooding

About the IDB:

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) aims to improve the quality of life in Latin America and the Caribbean. Established in 1959, the IDB works with the region’s public sector to develop and deliver innovative, high-impact solutions for sustainable and inclusive development. Through financing, technical expertise and knowledge, it promotes growth and well-being in 26 countries. Visit our website:

https://www.iadb.org/en

About ECLAC:

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations, created to contribute to the economic development of Latin America and strengthen the economic relations of the countries among themselves and with the other nations of the world. . Visit our website:

https://www.cepal.org/pt-br

About the World Bank:

The World Bank Group has a bold vision: to create a poverty-free world on a livable planet. In more than 100 countries, the World Bank Group provides financing, consulting, and innovative solutions that improve people’s lives by creating jobs, strengthening economic growth, and solving the most pressing global development problems. The World Bank Group is one of the largest sources of financing and expertise for developing countries. It is made up of the World Bank, including the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA); the International Finance Corporation (IFCI); the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA); and the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). For more information, visit:

www.worldbank.org, www.miga.org and www.ifc.org.

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