The selective index fell 0.21% this Friday
September 20 () –
The Ibex 35 has concluded its second consecutive week on the rise with a rise of 1.85%, reaching 11,753.3 points, in a period marked by the carousel of central bank meetings, especially the one held by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States, which has resulted in a half-point cut in interest rates.
According to market data consulted by Europa Press, the main indicator of the Spanish market has reached this week new highs since April 2015, having settled at 11,700 points, although it should be noted that this Friday it tried to attack – unsuccessfully, in the end, as it fell 0.21% in a session marked by the ‘quadruple witching hour’ – the 11,800 point mark.
So far this year, the Ibex 35 has gained 16.35%.
Entering into the analysis of the week, market analyst Joaquín Robles has summarized that it has been marked by the change in monetary policy of the Fed, which finally decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, leaving rates in the range of 4.75-5%.
“It has served as an upward boost for investor confidence, who see a possible soft landing closer, and for the main global indices,” he explained as a consequence of the action of the US central bank.
Indeed, it has been a particularly busy week for monetary policy institutions: the Bank of Japan has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25%; the Bank of England has kept interest rates unchanged at 5% (it lowered them in August for the first time) and has opted for a “gradual approach”; and the Bank of Norway – the Norges Bank – has left them unchanged at 4.5% but has opened the door to cuts for early 2025.
All this comes after the European Central Bank (ECB) made its second rate cut last week, leaving the reference rate at 3.5%.
In a week short on macroeconomic references, Robles has anticipated that the big question now is “whether inflation will really continue to fall in the coming days or whether it could present some bumps in the road that force the Fed to change its monetary policy,” which in turn will have repercussions on the entity presided by Lagarde, as several market analysts have warned.
In the Spanish business arena, three investment funds – Flat Footed, Mason Capital Management and Sachem Head Capital Management – have asked to join the board of directors of Grifols in the midst of the possible takeover bid (OPA) of the fund Brookfield Asset Management and the founding family for the Catalan company.
There have also been developments regarding BBVA’s hostile takeover bid for Banco Sabadell: the president of the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), Rodrigo Buenaventura, said on Tuesday that the body will observe the path followed by the National Commission of Markets and Competition (CNMC) as to whether BBVA’s takeover bid for Banco Sabadell is approved in phase 1 or moves on to phase 2 and that, based on this, they will evaluate the ideal moment for its authorization.
For her part, the president of the CNMC, Cani Fernández, said on Thursday that the regulator is still analysing the takeover bid (OPA) by BBVA for Banco Sabadell due to the multiple requests for information that it has had to send to Banco Sabadell due to the hostile nature of the operation.
BBVA Chairman Carlos Torres said earlier this week that Banco Sabadell shareholders should consider “what happens to the value of their shares if the offer fails.”
Specifically, in relation to listed financial institutions, Robles commented that the cuts in interest rates are currently providing confidence in banking institutions that could offset the fall in interest margins with increased consumption, increased activity and demand for credit.
According to Robles, rate cuts also boost sectors with higher levels of debt, such as the energy sector or those linked to raw materials, which could improve their growth prospects due to an increase in consumption thanks to the monetary policies adopted.
Given this situation, the stocks with the worst weekly performance have been Acciona Energía (-6.68%), Grifols (-3.96%), Cellnex (-2.69%), Indra (-2.55%), Endesa (-2.52%) and Solaria (-2.42%).
At the other end of the spectrum, BBVA (+5.27%), IAG (+4.96%), ArcelorMittal (+4.73%), Acerinox (+4.16%), Mapfre (+4.1%), Fluidra (+4.04%), Banco Sabadell (+3.62%), Banco Santander (+3.47%), Aena (+3.4%) and Inditex (+3.26%) have been very active.
The common denominator in Europe was the upward trend: London gained 0.08%, Frankfurt 0.11%, Paris 0.47% and Milan 0.58%.
Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq technology index and the Dow Jones all posted weekly gains of more than 1%.
In other markets, a barrel of Brent crude oil, the benchmark in Europe, rose this week by 4% to $74.45, while Texas crude rose by 4.8% to $71.95.
The euro appreciated by 0.86% during the week, reaching an exchange rate of 1.1171 dollars, while the Spanish ten-dollar bond closed at 2.992%, with the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) at 78.8 points.
The troy ounce of gold rose 1.8% this week, reaching new all-time highs above $2,600, while Bitcoin soared 5% to $63,000 as risk appetite returned following the Fed’s rate cuts.
KEY POINTS FOR NEXT WEEK
Robles said that next week we will see the manufacturing and services PMIs in the main world economies, parameters that will reflect the evolution and health of the economies.
GDP growth in the United States will also be published, and in Spain we will know the inflation data for September at the end of the week.
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