The Arakan Army begins talks with the Junta to obtain concessions from China

The ethnic militia is expanding its conquests in the western state of Myanmar and now controls 10 key Beijing projects and could exploit this to gain a number of advantages, experts say. The Arakan Army says the continuation of the offensive will depend on the decisions of the military junta.

Yangon () – The level of devastation of the offensive launched by the Arakan Army in Rakhine will depend on the military junta, AA spokesperson Khaing Thukha told the information site The Irrawaddy. After conquering one city after another, on December 29 the region’s largest ethnic militia declared that it was willing to resolve the conflict through political means, rather than military action. “Seeking political solutions to political problems has been our policy from the beginning,” Khaing Thukha reiterated today, referring to a China-mediated ceasefire attempt in January 2024. “We continue to adhere to this policy and maintain the open door to talks. “Whether our offensives cease or not will depend mainly on how the regime responds.”

With the conquest of Gwa, located in the southern tip of Rakhine, the Arakan Army now controls 14 of the 17 townships in western Burma and 10 Chinese projects, which it has pledged to protect. “With regard to foreign investments in the areas that we control, we have already said that we will provide protection to projects that also benefit our people and, if necessary, we will collaborate. There is no change in this policy,” continued the spokesman for the AA. Gwa is located just 400 kilometers from the region’s capital, which in turn is 250 kilometers from Yangon, the country’s largest city, where (for now) the army remains firmly in control. The Rakhine capital, Sittwe, also remains in military hands, along with Kyaukpyu (a major commercial centre) and Munaung.

The Arakan Army, fighting for an independent state, is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which launched a major offensive against the Burmese army in late October 2023. Since then, several outlying areas of Myanmar have been conquered by ethnic militias ( fighting for greater autonomy from the central government since the days of independence from British rule in 1948), and China, interested in protecting its investments and infrastructure projects in Myanmar and the safety of its citizens, has attempted to mediate (until now without success) a series of conversations between the military junta and the forces that make up the resistance.

Projects under the control of the Arakan Army in Rakhine include the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port and corresponding special economic zone, the Mandalay-Kyaukpyu railway project, the Kyaukpyu-Naypyidaw road project, a series of oil and gas pipelines extending from the Andaman Sea to Yunnan province in China, and some wind energy production projects in the cities of Thandwe and Ann. For Beijing, Myanmar is a key piece of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the network of economic corridors that should connect China with the rest of the world.

For months, Chinese officials have also been pressuring the other ethnic militias that make up the Alliance (the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army) to reopen diplomatic channels with the military junta. Having not obtained any results so far, Beijing, despite some reluctance to intervene directly in the internal affairs of other States, after having signed an agreement with the Burmese army could soon deploy private security companies to protect its investments, while continues attacking the members of cross-border criminal organizations accused of controlling a human trafficking network whose main victims are Chinese citizens.

According to the expertsethnic militias are now trying to take advantage of the presence of Chinese projects in the territories under their control to obtain concessions from Beijing (on which the survival of the military junta also depends). A process that could lead to the creation of a series of more or less independent regions and would clash with the creation of a federal State, the post-conflict project proposed by the previous government, the NUG, Government of National Unity, made up of deputies and ministers who belonged to Aung San Suu Kyi’s party and are currently in exile.