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In addition to the scandals surrounding the financing of Gustavo Petro’s presidential campaign and the illegal interceptions, related to two of his former trusted officials, there is an unfavorable image in the polls, the limbo in which the approval of his reforms in Congress and the differences inside and outside his political party.
These are, according to analysts, the main adversities faced by the first president of the left in Colombia. Experts agree that this is one of the worst crises that the current administration is going through.
“It is not the only one that has had to assume, but yes, definitely, it is the most serious for a reason, and that is that previously the crises had come from outside the government. This time, the problem is an internal problem, a bomb explodes inside the Palacio de Nariño, ”he told the voice of america the columnist and former secretary of Transparency and political analyst, Gabriel Cifuentes Ghidini.
Laura Lizarazo, Control Risks’ principal analyst for Colombia, affirms that this is “a serious blow to the governability of this administration and it will be extremely difficult for the government to recover and repair the damage that this recent episode has caused.”
Money and illegal interceptions
To the publication of the magazine Weekabout a complaint from the ex-nanny of the former head of Gustavo Petro’s cabinetLaura Sarabia, in which she stated that she had been forced to undergo a lie detector for a robbery, and the relationship of the case with the former Colombian ambassador to Venezuela, Armando Benedetti, followed a prosecutor’s investigation He talks about wiretapping and illegal wiretapping by police officers.
The case, after force Petro to remove them from his governmentgrew like a snowball, after hearing audios from Benedetti related to alleged irregular financing of the campaign that brought the president to power, a fact that the president has vehemently denied.
A “plot” that, says Cifuentes, “is just beginning”, because “it is a chapter that is opening, which is going to have significance at the judicial level”, since it implies an investigation of campaign financing by the National Electoral Council and, in addition, “it will have a chapter in the Accusations Commission”, in charge of investigating the presidents, in case there is a complaint against them.
“The issue is still warm,” because up to now it is uncertain “whether more information will come out or what effect the information that has already been released may have on the president’s political agenda and, above all, on the legal implications it may have.” ”, adds the analyst.
However, Lizarazo points out, it is a situation that forces the government to “dedicate resources that are limited, such as time, energy, visibility, defending itself against serious, complex, serious accusations” and that will take away resources to “carry forward an agenda of ambitious public policy”.
Legislative agenda in limbo
Cifuentes describes the crisis as “entangled” and maintains that “it is too early to qualify the effect it may have on the legislative agenda of the Petro government.”
However, there is only one week left until the end of the legislature. On Monday, it was announced freezing of discussions on reforms, putting the legislative agenda at risk. There are already moderate parties that have withdrawn.
Of the 29 projects that the government had initially proposed for these first months, the analyst says: “it seems that they are not going to work in Congress, in this legislature, and they are facing a much more difficult scenario in the next one because they are going to be also disputing the departmental and municipal elections”.
Elections are scheduled for October 29.
The crisis in the Casa de Nariño, said the columnist to the VOA“can separate the most moderate sectors of the government, which are the determining sectors for the approval” of a social package, which includes the labor reform, the pension reform and the health reform, and the one related to Total Peace, which includes the Law of Submission and humanization of the penitentiary system.
Internal and external differences
For the analyst, the internal tensions within the government, within her party, in Congress and in the coalition with other parties -shattered- are related to the fact that “he is the first democratically elected president of the left in a traditionally very conservative country and, as this figure has arrived with an agenda for change, he faces the need to make certain concessions, alliances and strategic negotiations” with “traditional actors of this system… permeated by clientelist practices”, which, they would even allow him to carry out an agenda.
And, on the other hand, Lizarazo explains, there is the “inexperience” of this political force in power, which has cost it, for example, to negotiate. “There are no absolutely clear strategic lines that define what will be the form, strategy and mechanisms to carry out the government agenda,” adds the analyst.
Even, he adds, the crisis in the government will be a “window of opportunity” for the opposition to “position their criticism of the government and possibly candidacies in the second semester elections.”
unfavorable image
A week ago, the most recent Invamer poll revealed discouraging numbers on the approval of President Petro, as the disapproval rate reached 59.4% compared to 43% registered in November 2022.
However, Professor Gabriel Cifuentes makes a caveat: “No president of Colombia, except a few decades ago with Álvaro Uribe, had had a favorable opinion.” In other words, “the unfavorable image of President Gustavo Petro coincides with the unfavorable image of the presidents who preceded him.” However, it is striking that he “takes office so soon, that is, he has not turned one year old and the unfavorable image of him is close to 60%.”
For analysts, these figures and the president’s crisis are going to have an impact on public opinion. 66% of those surveyed stated that they had not perceived the change that Petro promised in the campaign and 70.7% say that their country is not on the right track.
The Control Risks analyst says that it is a situation that has a “serious impact on the credibility of a government that was elected with a banner of change, in favor of the most vulnerable layers of the population and that it intended, among the profound transformations to the status quo of the country, also put an end to the traditional practices of corruption”.
In this sense, Lizarazo told the VOAit is a great challenge to reverse the bad reputation because people are left with “a cloak of doubt that it will be very difficult for the government to defend”, above all, “if it does not follow a strategy with a cool, measured head and a less effervescent communication strategy and less volatile, which has not been the case until now.”
For Cifuentes, it will depend on the Petro government if it responds to “the warning bell that the polls are indicating” and understands that “it has to agree with the parties that helped it come to power” or if it continues “to radicalize its way of governing” and closing the circle closest to the government.
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