Tax collection could fall between $7 and $20 billion by the end of 2024

Tax collection is one of the pending issues for which this government has had the most objections, since the projections made for 2024 have not been met and this led to the spending amounts having to be lowered in the Budget and currently the pressures are maintained in the Nation’s treasury and The urgency of money continues to worry the tax authorities.

Although it has already been detected that this happened due to errors such as overestimate Dian’s capabilities and point to income from litigation and arbitrations that were not fulfilled, it seems that the lesson was not learned and the mistakes of the past will be fulfilled again if everything continues at the pace it is going, since, in his voice Carf, it depends on uncertain income that maintains the risk of increasing the deficit.

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That it depends on a financing law for $12 billion, the slow pace of the economy and that higher expectations are being generated than those that the National Tax and Customs Directorate can meet; They are part of the threats that loom in the panorama, not to mention that the collection of the current validity will remain downward and will not even reach the adjusted goal.

Downward projections

This week, Corficolombiana’s economic research team presented a review of the country’s current situation regarding tax collection and asserted that it will be unlikely that the objectives outlined in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework will be met, given that Conditions are unfavorable and the dynamics on this front show no signs of recovery.

These researchers proposed three scenarios (optimistic, medium and unfavorable), in which, unlike past projections, there is no longer a perceived possibility that the collection goal can be met, not even with the ‘tax miracle’ that some analysts They said, weeks ago, that it had a chance of happening.

“According to Dian information, the total collection in August was $15.9 billionregistering a fall of 31.5% annually, which represents the second largest decline of the year and a deterioration worse than that recorded during the pandemic. In the first eight months of the year, total collection amounts to $177.9 billion, falling 9.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, resulting in a drop greater than 2 percentage points than that perceived during the pandemic between January and August. “, they stated.

That said, the first possibility, in a base or medium risk scenario, is that collection will stop falling in annual terms between September and December, projecting a total of $246.4 billion at the end of 2024, which represents a difference of $12 billions below the goal of the Fiscal Framework.

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“In a second, more optimistic scenario, we assume that collection grows 5.6% annually in the last four months of the year, that is, similar to the inflation we expect for the end of the year, which implies real growth close to zero. . In this case, the 2024 collection would be $251 billion and The shortfall compared to the Mfpm goal would be $7.6 billion,” they indicated from Corficolombiana.

Finally, in a not so favorable vision, which could happen, Corfi proposes a situation in which the collection maintains the rate of decline of 9.7% annually in the last quarter, which would end 2024 at $238, 5 trillion and the shortfall would amount to $20.2 trillion and to compensate for this they say that an additional adjustment in government spending will be necessary in 2024 of between 0.4% and 1.2% of GDP.

However, they make it clear that this adjustment may not be explicit, but rather through of a lower execution of this year’s General Budget of the Nation, as has been observed in recent months.

Repeated errors

Corficolombiana also took a look at how 2025 is coming in terms of taxation, collection and management of income and there stated that the outlook is even more challenging, since the income that the government expects to finance the Budget includes uncertain sources and too many assumptions. optimistic about next year’s collection, especially because they have as a starting point revenue goals for 2024 that will not be met.

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“With the presentation of the PGN for 2025, we proposed that there was a space for austerity between $10.9 and $11.6 trillion, from a perspective of operating spending by type of entity. Now, from an income perspective and amid the poor performance that collection has presented so far in 2024, we identify “Uncertainty factors persist in this area for next year,” they stated.

In that sense, they noted that “the CARF indicated that the PGN’s income programming for 2025 increases by $31.1 billion compared to what was projected in the Fiscal Framework in mid-June, reducing the credibility of the fiscal programming. Particularly, this greater source of income would be subject to the approval of the Financing Bill, aiming to raise $11.8 billion, a greater management of the Dian that would add another $14.6 billion to the collection of the $14 billion already mentioned in the Mfpm. and an additional $4.5 billion for greater capital resources.”

In Corfi they also referred to the Financing Law project, and highlighted that the approval of the project is in suspense and “seems optimistic” if one takes into account the atmosphere that existed in Congress during the Budget talks and that it was not finally approved. by the economic commissions and must be decreed by President Gustavo Petro.

“Therefore, we anticipate that Congress will at most approve the acceleration of the transition period of the Fiscal Rule, which would grant the government an additional spending margin of $5.3 trillion,” they warned.

Thus, they closed with the statement that if the “Government decides to decree the PGN 2025 for an amount of $523 billion, we anticipate that it will be necessary an adjustment of at least $37.5 billion (2.0% of GDP) next year to comply with the Fiscal Rule.”