In the city of Idlib alone there are about 400 Tajiks, as well as an unknown number of Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Kazakhs. Beyond the “moderate” coverage of who will form the new government, there is widespread fear in Central Asian capitals that Damascus could become the new center of attraction for all forms of radical Islam.
Dushanbe () – The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, after fifty years of dictatorship, with the seizure of power by radical Islamic groups, also has considerable consequences for the countries of Central Asia, taking into account that hundreds of citizens from this region are part of the armies of Hay’at Tahrir ash-Sham, the movement that now commands Damascus. Among them are hundreds of Tajiks, and a report by Radio Ozodi sought to clarify the perspective with experts in Tajikistan, who fear a trend of more radical young people to join the Syrians in forming a global Islamic caliphate.
In so many years of authoritarian government, Assad has not been able to provide credible responses to the expectations of his own people, reducing repressive practices and establishing reforms that allow the development of the entire country, also integrating the opponents. The excessive dependence on external allies such as Russia and Iran, with groups linked to Tehran, caused a crisis as the situation in these countries became complicated with the wars in Ukraine and Israel. Today, however, the question of Syria’s future remains open.
It is not clear how the groups of victors will divide the slices of the power pie, since the formation of the armies that have reduced the Assad regime to nothing is very composed. The leader of Hay’at, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, presents himself as the main figure of the entire galaxy of numerous “Islamic organizations” that control a large part of the Syrian territory, where sectors of the Kurdish armed forces also remain, faced with Turkey’s enemies. Many experts fear a situation of permanent chaos and a division of territories similar to that of Libya or Iraq.
According to Tajik expert Kosim Bekmukhammad, taking into account the relations of many of these groups with the intelligence services of several countries, “the stability of the country is the last thing that can be expected,” and a resurgence of Isis would not be surprising, Al Qaeda, the Al Nusra Front or other formations, each of which will try to take over a sector of the country. “There are many parties that try to pull the side of their own interests,” Kosim points out, “as is already evident from the actions of Israel, which bombs Syrian facilities that could cause problems tomorrow.” Türkiye is also trying to reach an agreement with the Kurds once and for all.
Radio Ozodi shows the numerous messages in which citizens of Central Asia praise the “common victory in Syria”, and in the city of Idlib alone there are about 400 Tajiks, as well as an unknown number of Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Kazakhs. An expert on religious affairs, Makhrambek Makhrambekov, says that “the hundreds of people from our parts flanking the Islamists in Syria could attract a lot of people, creating propaganda centers that could have unpredictable effects, especially among young people.” Syria would thus become, beyond the “moderate” coverage of whoever forms the new government, the new pole of attraction for all forms of radical Islam.
The roots of the Hay’at group itself go back to Al Qaeda and, according to another expert in the fight against extremism, Rustam Azizi, “in the ever-widening space of information and communication, these ideological tendencies multiply very quickly ». Many observers agree that the threat of this concentration in Syria is much greater than that of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which is dedicated in its own territory to the construction of its own radical Islamic Emirate, while Syria is projected towards the global dimensions of the Caliphate, an ideal much more attractive to Central Asians in particular, and to many extremists around the world.
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